023
ACUS01 KWNS 310538
SWODY1
SPC AC 310537

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this
afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of
the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates
east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the
surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states.
Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the
Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will
remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking
below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by
large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level
jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear
that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon.
Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which
could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also
occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the
central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of
southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late
afternoon.

..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025

$$