787
ACUS01 KWNS 220106
SWODY1
SPC AC 220104

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ALSO A SMALL PART OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible into late tonight across parts
of the northern Plains, and also through the evening across parts of
south-central Kansas.

...Parts of MT into the Dakotas and northwest MN...
Multiple clusters of strong to severe storms are ongoing this
evening from central/southeast MT into western SD. The downstream
environment is moderately to strongly unstable and favorably
sheared, and these storm clusters will continue to pose a threat of
hail and strong to severe gusts in the short term as they move
east-northeastward. See MCD 1748 for more information regarding the
short-term threat in this area.

With time, a modestly increasing low-level jet may support upscale
growth into an MCS somewhere from northwest SD into ND, though
short-term guidance continues to vary regarding the details. Rather
strong CINH across northwest SD into southwest ND may tend to delay
any organized upscale growth until late tonight, though increasing
low-level warm advection and steep midlevel lapse rates could help
to sustain ongoing convection as it moves through this region. Any
organized cluster or larger MCS that develops could pose a
damaging-wind threat through the overnight hours into parts of
eastern ND, northeast SD, and potentially northwest MN.

...Central/southern Plains...
A large cluster of storms across north-central KS may tend to
propagate south-southeastward through the evening, within a moderate
to strongly unstable environment. Decreasing shear with southward
extent and the influence of convective outflow across both northeast
and southwest KS will eventually result in a weakening trend, but
some threat for strong to severe gusts and hail may persist with
this cluster through the evening. See MCD 1749 for more information.

Farther south, high-based convection may persist through dusk from
the TX/OK Panhandles into southwest TX, with a threat of localized
strong to severe gusts.

..Dean.. 07/22/2025

$$