209
ACUS01 KWNS 121952
SWODY1
SPC AC 121951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms remain possible along the coast of northern
California late tonight/early tomorrow. No severe threat is forecast
across the U.S. today or tonight.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the current outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible late tonight ahead of an upper trough moving onshore
over northern CA near 12z. Severe potential is low, see the prior
outlook for more info.

..Lyons.. 11/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025/

...Synopsis...

An amplified upper pattern will persist across the CONUS
today/tonight, characterized by a trough across the eastern states
and an upper ridge over the West. At the surface, a mostly
dry/stable airmass will be in place, precluding thunderstorm
activity for most of the forecast period.

Late tonight, an upper low will progress eastward eastern Pacific,
approaching the offshore waters near northern CA. As height falls
overspread the Pacific coast, a surface low will deepen offshore. A
line of elevated convection is expected to develop ahead of a cold
front and move onshore in the 08-12z time frame. Cooling aloft will
support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms will
be possible. Severe storms are not expected.

$$