Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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680 ACUS01 KWNS 081638 SWODY1 SPC AC 081637 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ...North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. ..Guyer/Dean.. 11/08/2024 $$