029
ACUS01 KWNS 020116
SWODY1
SPC AC 020115

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0815 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

$$