445
ACUS01 KWNS 080056
SWODY1
SPC AC 080055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and perhaps some severe wind gusts remain
possible this evening across parts of central New Mexico.

...Synopsis...
Evening water-vapor imagery shows a broad upper trough over eastern
Canada extending southward into the northeastern US. Trailing this
feature, largely zonal mid-level flow is ongoing over the central
US, with a surface cold front moving south across the Plains and
Midwest. To the west, a weak subtropical wave and jet were noted
over part of AZ and NM over the western portions of the stalling
cold front. Weak upslope flow was supporting isolated thunderstorms
over parts of NM and the southern High Plains this evening.

...Central NM...
Weak ascent beneath the western shortwave and subtropical jet has
allowed for isolated convection to develop within weak upslope flow
along a backdoor cold front over central NM. While buoyancy is
limited, (500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE) from the 18z ABQ RAOB, it should
remain sufficient to support stronger updrafts for a couple of hours
this evening. 35-45 kt of bulk shear will favor some organization
with a few supercell structures noted. While lapse rates are not
overly steep, shear and buoyancy are favorable for some hail.
Isolated severe gusts are also possible where low-level lapse rates
are steeper. Convective intensity should gradually wane over the
next 1-3 hours as the storms move slowly eastward into a cooler air
mass and nocturnal stabilization of the boundary-layer begins.

..Lyons.. 10/08/2025

$$