690
ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN US...

...SUMMARY...
An organized/bowing line of storms will move across parts of the
Southeast and southern Appalachians this evening with the potential
for corridors of wind damage and a tornado or two.  Other areas of
severe storms will be possible in the wake of this morning`s storms
from Mississippi westward to Texas, and across parts of the southern
High Plains and Ozarks.

...20z Update Southeast and Tennessee Valley...
The ongoing MCS across the Southeast has steadily matured this
afternoon with numerous reports of wind damage across Alabama and
Mississippi. These storms will likely continue to pose a risk for
damaging gusts and an isolated tornado as they move eastward into
the southern Appalachians this evening/tonight. The primary change
with the outlook was to trim the Enhanced and Slight Risks behind
the cold pool. Continued heating and air mass recovery immediately
behind these storms may support some redevelopment along the western
edge of the trailing outflow from the ArkLaTex to Mississippi
tonight. Recent HRRR guidance suggests a few clusters of severe
storms may redevelop and spread eastward tonight with a risk for
occasional hail and damaging gusts.

...West-Central Texas, the Panhandle to Red River vicinity...
In the wake of morning convection now over the Southeast, robust
surface heating/mixing along and south of the remnant outflow and
synoptic front could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development this evening. Additional isolated storms are possible
near the dryline/outflow intersection across central Texas and the
southeastern Texas Panhandle. While confidence in storm development
is not overly high, owing to modest forcing for ascent and residual
capping, moderate to large buoyancy and deep-layer shear could
support splitting supercells capable of large to very large hail and
damaging outflow gusts this evening. Will maintain the level 2
Slight Risk and expand it westward for potential storm
development/intensification across west-central and western North
Texas this evening.

Otherwise, the prior outlook remains unchanged. Isolated severe
storms are possible across parts of the Ozarks ahead of a remnant
MCV. Damaging gusts are the most probable hazard. Additional
isolated storms are possible over the northern Plains ahead of the
cold front. See the prior discussion for more information.

..Lyons.. 06/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Jun 07 2025/

...Mid-South into the Southeast through tonight...
Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley, an
MCS and associated MCV are moving eastward across the Mid-South.
Per modified 12z soundings, as surface temperatures warm into the
80s, MLCAPE will exceed 2000 J/kg in an environment with sufficient
downdraft potential and low-midlevel vertical shear to maintain a
wind-damage threat through the afternoon from northern MS/adjacent
TN across AL to GA.  Please see MD 1175 for additional short-term
details.  Otherwise, the MCS is expected to weaken late this
evening/early tonight while moving into SC.

In the wake of the morning convection, some additional storm
development will be possible along the trailing outflow/effective
front from north TX across southern AR into MS/AL.  The specific
corridor will depend on the southern extent of the outflow
progression with today`s MCS, but some hail/wind threat will be
possible later this afternoon into tonight.

...Northeast NM into the northern TX Panhandle this evening...
Low-level flow will become upslope this afternoon, when surface
heating and low-level moisture could be sufficient for isolated
thunderstorm development near the Raton Mesa in far northeast NM.
There is the potential for a sustained supercell to emerge from
initially high-based convection, and then move southeastward into
the northwest TX Panhandle this evening.  Moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg), relatively straight hodographs with effective
bulk shear near or above 40 kt and midlevel lapse rates of 7-8 C/km
will support the primary threats of large hail and strong-severe
outflow gusts for a few hours this evening.

...Permian Basin this afternoon/evening...
The 12z MAF sounding revealed a warm elevated mixed layer and a
strong cap.  Surface heating/mixing along and south of an outflow
boundary could be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm
development later this afternoon/evening, though confidence is low.
If storms form, the environment will support splitting supercells
capable of producing isolated large hail and damaging outflow gusts
for a few hours this evening.  This area will be re-evaluated for a
possible upgrade at 20z.

...Mid MS/lower OH Valleys this afternoon/evening...
As the midlevel shortwave trough progresses east-southeastward from
northwest MO vicinity as of mid morning, there will be the potential
for a short arc of thunderstorms near and immediately southeast of
the midlevel vorticity center.  Boundary-layer dewpoints remain in
the 60s ahead of this feature, and there will be some increase in
vertical shear as the midlevel trough approaches.  However, fairly
widespread clouds, poor midlevel lapse rates and the influence of
the MCS farther south all suggest that the severe threat is best
characterized as marginal.

...Northern Plains this afternoon/evening...
A cold front will surge southeastward across ND this afternoon, in
association with a digging shortwave trough now over southern SK.
Pre-frontal low-level moisture and buoyancy will likely remain
rather limited this afternoon, but a band of convection is expected
along the front this afternoon.  Gusty outflow winds and some hail
may occur with the strongest storms for a few hours this
afternoon/evening.

$$