894
ACUS01 KWNS 261154
SWODY1
SPC AC 261153

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms accompanied by damaging wind gusts will be
possible this afternoon through tonight in parts of the northern
Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible from the
Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic region, and
across the central High Plains and much of Montana.

...Northern Plains...
Current water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough and
associated mid-level speed max over parts of UT.  As this feature
tracks northeastward today, large-scale lift and subtle cooling
aloft will overspread parts of northeast WY and central/eastern MT.
Northerly/upslope surface winds, combined with strong heating and
moderate CAPE values, will promote the development of scattered
high-based gusty thunderstorms by late afternoon.  Storms that move
into western SD will encounter progressively higher CAPE and likely
grow upscale through the evening with a greater risk of organized
severe winds.  Latest model guidance suggests some potential for
this activity to persist deep into the night and spread across
eastern ND and parts of northern MN.  Damaging winds will remain the
main concern, along with some risk of hail and a tornado or two.

...Midwest into Mid-Atlantic Region...
A large cluster of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of IA/IL.  The associated outflow boundaries and clouds will
result in an effective baroclinic zone today from northern MO/IL
into southern Lower MI.  Along and south of this boundary, hot/humid
conditions will lead to large CAPE values.  Scattered afternoon
thunderstorms are expected, with the strongest cells capable of
gusty/damaging winds.  This regime will extend eastward into parts
of PA and the Chesapeake Bay area with a few strong afternoon
thunderstorms possible.

..Hart/Grams.. 07/26/2025

$$