801
ACUS01 KWNS 242009
SWODY1
SPC AC 242007

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
FRONT RANGE...SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
southern Plains to the Southeast today. Damaging winds, large hail
and a few tornadoes are all possible, particularly across the
southern Plains including Oklahoma. Severe storms are also expected
in areas including the Colorado Front Range and southern High
Plains.

...20Z Update...
Given the MCS that has moved through much of Arkansas, severe
probabilities have been decreased in parts of central/eastern
Arkansas. Elsewhere, the Enhanced risk was modified based to reflect
the current position of the outflow boundary. The remainder of the
forecast remains unchanged. Please see the previous discussion for
additional details.

..Wendt.. 05/24/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025/

...ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss and Lower Mississippi Valley...
While the MCS from earlier this morning has tended to trend less
intense/organized, diurnal re-intensification is still probable, if
not likely, downstream (southeastward) today as convection/cloud
cover reinforces the effective boundary that extends
east-southeastward across the region. Bouts of damaging winds and
hail are the primary hazards.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma to Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
An ample reservoir of low-level moisture and strong to locally
extreme potential instability (3500+ J/kg MLCAPE) will reside on the
west/southwest fringe of the early morning MCS and related outflow,
residual cloud cover, and some regenerative late-morning elevated
convection. That said, short-term guidance is rather variable on a
sub-synoptic scale as far as boundary modification and
north-northeastward placement, while mid-level capping south of the
boundary is also a complexifying forecast factor.

Potentially intense surface-based storm development appears most
probable across Oklahoma near where outflow modifies/intercepts a
weak surface wave, coupled with aggressive low-level heating/mixing
from the southwest. This could include very large hail (conceivably
2-4") and semi-focused tornado potential contingent upon deep
convective initiation. Of somewhat greater certainty is for storms
to increase this evening with low-level jet onset/increase, with
storms rooted more progressively above a near-surface stable layer
with north-northeastward extent tonight. Large hail would be the
primary hazard with this activity, with another round of MCS
development (and related damaging wind potential) plausible late
tonight across eastern Oklahoma toward Arkansas/Ozarks.

...Southern High Plains-Texas Big Country/Low Rolling Plains...
As least isolated severe storm development is expected across the
region in vicinity of the dry line. Strong heating/boundary layer
mixing in the post-dryline environment should be compensatory for
mid-level warmth/capping, leading to increasing/deepening convection
by late-afternoon peak heating. Deep-layer winds will be weak with
only 20-30 kt effective shear (or less), but the thermodynamic
environment will support multicells capable of pulse-type/episodic
large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts late this afternoon through
around mid-evening.

...Front Range/Central High Plains...
While a cool/moist air mass and plentiful stratus has persisted
across the High Plains, a gradual erosion of stratus has generally
be noted in visible satellite imagery more immediately east of the
mountains/foot hills including the I-25/urban corridor. Aided by
modest low-level upslope flow, strong to severe thunderstorms should
develop in this corridor this afternoon, at least on an isolated
basis. Severe-storm-conducive buoyancy and steep lapse rates, with
adequate deep-layer, would support supercell potential with related
risks for large hail and possibly a tornado risk.

...Florida Peninsula...
Another day of seasonably cool mid-level temperatures atop a moist
low-level airmass combined with strong daytime heating will likely
support moderate to locally strong instability across parts of the
Florida Peninsula this afternoon. While large-scale forcing for
ascent will remain weak, both the Gulf and Atlantic Coast sea
breezes should aid in scattered thunderstorm development by peak
afternoon heating. Modest deep-layer shear should support some
updraft organization, and isolated hail/wind gusts appear possible
with any of the stronger cores that sustain.

$$