655
ACUS01 KWNS 050554
SWODY1
SPC AC 050552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main
concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms over the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains...
A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak
will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon
into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of
middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern
High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying
the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across
central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of
effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose
a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any
upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind
gusts (some 75+ mph).

...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher
terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward
into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and
moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely
organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025

$$