352
FNUS21 KWNS 121503
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1002 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Valid 121700Z - 131200Z

The forecast remains on track, and please see the previous
discussion for more details.

..Nauslar.. 10/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025/

...Synopsis...
At the leading edge of a broad midlevel trough over the West, a
robust shortwave trough will move east-northeastward across the
northern/central Plains. This will maintain pronounced lee troughing
over the central/southern High Plains, while a related cold front
overspreads the northern/central Plains during the day.

...Southern Plains...
A tightened pressure gradient peripheral to the lee troughing will
favor 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds amid 25-30 percent
RH during the afternoon. Given increasingly dry/stressed fuels,
these warm, dry, and breezy conditions will yield several hours of
elevated fire-weather concerns.

...Central Plains...
Behind the cold front, RH will quickly fall into the 20-25 percent
range as west-northwesterly surface winds strengthen to around 20-25
mph during the afternoon. While these meteorological conditions
would typically warrant fire-weather highlights, current indications
are that fuels do not support a substantial threat of large-fire
spread at this time -- especially given some rainfall over the last
week. Nevertheless, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are
possible (especially over the NE Panhandle) where any pockets of
receptive fuels may exist.

...Southern CA...
On the backside of the shortwave trough, high pressure over the
Great Basin will maintain an offshore pressure gradient across
southern CA during the start of the forecast period. As a result,
breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and reduced RH (around
15-20 percent) will briefly affect the wind-prone mountains and
valleys of eastern Ventura and western Los Angeles Counties during
the morning and afternoon hours. Elevated fire-weather conditions
can be expected where fuels are dry, though the area appears too
localized for highlights at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$