617
FNUS21 KWNS 021714
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025

Valid 021700Z - 031200Z

CORRECTED FOR CRITICAL TAG

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN UTAH
INTO WESTERN COLORADO...

...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO...
Hot, very dry (minimum RH values of 5-15%), and windy conditions
(sustained surface winds in excess of 20 mph) coupled with ERCs
exceeding the 95th percentile will promote several hours of Critical
fire weather conditions this afternoon/evening from portions of
southern/eastern Utah into northwest Colorado. The forecast remains
on track across this region, with only minor changes needed based on
the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop around midday across the
Intermountain West, with coverage peaking during the mid/late
afternoon and then decreasing through the evening. While scattered
thunderstorms are possible, mainly across eastern Oregon and
southwest Idaho, increasing PW in these areas (0.8-0.9) suggest a
mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. Gusty and erratic outflow winds are
also possible near any thunderstorms, with near severe (50+ mph)
outflow gusts possible (especially across portions of northeast
Nevada and southwest Idaho). Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective
Outlook for more information on the nearby severe weather threat.

Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
today`s fire weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 08/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/

...Synopsis...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge centered on the
Southwest/northern Mexico, a westerly midlevel jet streak will
overspread the southern/eastern Great Basin. In response, a weak
surface low will develop over eastern UT, resulting in a tightening
pressure gradient across the area.

...Southern/eastern UT into northwest CO...
Diurnal heating will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer across
the southern/eastern Great Basin, where widespread single-digit RH
is expected during the afternoon. Boundary-layer mixing into the
strengthening flow aloft, coupled with an enhanced pressure
gradient, will yield 20 mph west-southwesterly surface wind from
southern/eastern UT into northwest CO. The combination of breezy
surface winds and low RH will favor critical fire-weather
conditions, given receptive fuels across the region.

...Dry Thunderstorms - Intermountain West...
Diurnally driven high-based thunderstorms are expected across the
Intermountain West, aided by weak large-scale forcing for ascent
ahead of a deamplifying midlevel trough. Around 0.7 inch PW and a
deep/dry boundary layer will support mostly dry thunderstorms,
capable of lightning-induced ignitions over any receptive fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$