Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
347 FNUS21 KWNS 141631 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z Some areas received wetting rains (greater than 0.10") across eastern WY and adjacent High Plains of NE/SD. This has temporarily reduced the fire weather threat for today, with a reduction made on the eastern extent of elevated highlights across northeastern WY into far western SD. Elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across much of central WY into far southeastern MT where less rainfall occurred. Meteorological conditions will reach Critical levels across southern WY to include sustained west winds of 20-30 mph and RH as low as 10%, but at least some rainfall over the past 24 hours and cloud cover will moderate overall fire environment today. ..Williams.. 09/14/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today as a strong jet streak associated with an upper-level low progresses from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Great Plains. Meteorological conditions will reach well into Critical criteria for wind and RH, but ongoing precipitation and a somewhat unfavorable fuelscape will generally temper the fire-weather concerns. Across portions of western North Texas into southwest Oklahoma, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected as lee trough development in response to the aforementioned jet streak results in dry and breezy conditions. ...Wyoming... Precipitation from high-based thunderstorm activity over critically receptive fuels in Wyoming early this morning will complicate aspects of the forecast today. However, 25-30 MPH winds and relative humidity of 10-15% are still expected this afternoon. While some areas receiving precipitation may have a reduced ignition threat, rainfall amounts should remain under a half inch and are not widespread enough to completely wet all available fuels. Meteorological conditions are well into Critical territory for wind, but the ongoing precipitation and low fuel density support maintaining Elevated highlights at this time. ...Western North Texas into southwestern Oklahoma... Dry and breezy southerly flow of 15-20 MPH is expected to develop across much of the Southern Plains in response to lee troughing and surface low development. The current expectation is that afternoon relative humidity will reach around 25% with some localized areas reaching 20%. Despite the more marginal relative humidity, these conditions overlap with critically receptive fuels, with ERCs in the 90th-95th annual percentile ranges, supporting an Elevated threat for wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$