443
FNUS21 KWNS 140656
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AZ AND SOUTHERN
NM...

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to deepen as it
moves eastward over the central US. A lee low and dryline will
strengthen over the Plains, supporting dry and breezy conditions
over much of the western and central CONUS. While strong southerly
winds are also possible ahead of the deepening surface low,
returning surface moisture and precipitation chances are also
expected, complicating some fire-weather potential. Critical
fire-weather conditions appear most likely over parts of the
Southwest.

...Southwest...
Moderate mid-level flow at the base of the ejecting upper-trough
will support westerly downslope winds of 20-25 mph across parts of
the Southwest this afternoon and evening. A very dry surface pattern
is expected to continue with above normal temperatures and little
recent rainfall. This should support widespread RH below 15%. With
sufficient fuels in place, and additional drying expected, several
hours of critical fire-weather conditions are likely over
southeastern AZ into southern NM and west TX.

...Central and Northern Plains...
A strong lee low with a trailing dryline will gradually deepen as
the upper trough begins to move over the Plains. Dry downslope flow
is possible over parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest behind the strengthening dryline. With RH minimums below 30%
and wind gusting to 20 mph, some elevated fire-weather threat may be
possible across parts of CO/KS and NE into the Dakotas and western
MN. However, the strongest meteorological conditions are not
expected to overlap with areas of supportive fuels given past
rainfall and additional rain through the period. Increasing surface
moisture may also limit any appreciable overlap. This will favor a
more localized threat with only isolated elevated fire-weather
conditions expected.

..Lyons.. 05/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$