Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
963 FNUS21 KWNS 181636 FWDDY1 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z The forecast remains on track for elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon in southwestern Oklahoma and north-central Texas. Modest to good overnight humidity recoveries occurred across much of the region, with 16z observations depicting RH values in the 30-40% range. High pressure residing over the central-southeastern CONUS will promote widespread above normal temperatures in the upper 90s to 100s F. As a result of long term drought, and many southwestern Oklahoma mesonets portraying 60 consecutive days of less than 0.25" of rainfall, fuels have become exceptionally dry. Despite expected RH values of 20-25% and 10-15 mph sustained southerly winds this afternoon, the Elevated fire weather threat is driven mainly by the desiccated state of the fuel environment (expansive 90-95th percentile ERCs). ..Elizalde-Garcia.. 09/18/2026 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level low across the northern Great Basin into the Intermountain West will continue to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms across the western US. Across the eastern US, high amplitude ridging will continue to bring above normal temperatures from the southern Plains into the Southeast. ...Southern Oklahoma into far North-Central Texas... A surface trough across the central Plains will promote southerly winds of 10-15 mph over southern KS, western OK and the TX Panhandle this afternoon. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across southwestern Oklahoma into north-central Texas. Fuels across this region remain critically dry (90-95th percentile ERCs), with well below normal rainfall over the last few weeks and building drought conditions. Though relative humidity is forecast to remain largely above 20-25 percent, temperatures will approach or exceed 100 F across this region amid the southerly breezes with potential for a few hours of Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$