114
FNUS21 KWNS 151645
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Valid 151700Z - 161200Z

The forecast remains on track for a third day of mixed wet/dry
thunderstorms across portions of the Northwest. Localized
accumulating rainfall has occurred within the last 24-48 hours
across the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm risk area, but is not enough to
alleviate broader fire concerns. Consequently, lightning ignitions
are possible where receptive fuels exist. In the southern Plains,
many days of hot, dry and windy conditions have contributed to the
curing of fine fuels. Given an uptick in new starts and some fires
exceeding 500 acres, the fuelscape has proven to be increasingly
more receptive. ERCs approaching the 95-98th percentile amid dry and
breezy conditions this afternoon will generate an Elevated fire
weather threat across portions of the eastern TX Panhandle, western
Oklahoma, and south-central Kansas. See the previous discussion for
more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 08/15/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026/

...Synopsis...
A prominent upper ridge over the central US is forecast to continue
building rapidly with weak upper-level troughing remaining over the
northwestern US. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain likely
on the periphery of the ridge near the upper trough and a belt of
monsoon moisture. Under the ridge, excessively hot temperatures are
again likely over the Plains and central US supporting low afternoon
humidity, breezy winds and an elevated fire-weather risk.

...Northwest...
Along the northern periphery of the expanding upper ridge, weak
upper troughing and monsoon moisture will support another day of
showers and thunderstorms. Scattered thunderstorms should develop
over the higher terrain of central OR and the WA Cascades before
spreading northeastward through the day. Despite several prior days
of rainfall, some fuels remain receptive. Near the upper trough,
faster moving thunderstorms (25-30 mph forward motions), are
expected and should limit rainfall supporting some drier storms.

To the east over parts of eastern OR into ID, a mix of wet/dry
storms is expected with slower storm speeds. Fuels here are also not
as receptive within a broader swath of observed wetting rain.
However, greater storm coverage should favor increased lightning
potential. Some drier strikes are possible outside the heavier
precip cores, supporting some risk for lightning ignitions in the
remaining dry fuels.

...Southern Plains...
Another day of very hot, dry and breezy conditions is expected south
of a weak frontal boundary over portions of northwest OK and the TX
Panhandle this afternoon.  As the upper ridge continues to build
flow will be weaker with south winds of around 15 mph. However,
afternoon highs in the 100s F and RH falling to as low as 15 percent
will overlap with very dry fuels and recent notable fire activity. A
few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across
parts of the TX Panhandle, northwest OK into far southern KS.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$