216
FNUS21 KWNS 301642
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Valid 301700Z - 311200Z

The forecast remains on track for isolated dry thunderstorm
potential this afternoon across central/eastern Idaho into western
Montana. Current satellite imagery portrays heavy smoke blanketing
much of the northwestern CONUS, including the IsoDryT risk area,
which could limit greater thunderstorm development. Although,
forecast soundings depict 0.7-0.9" PWATs, sufficient MUCAPE of
400-800 J/kg, 20-25 kt LCL-EL winds and a dry sub-cloud layer
support dry thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. If a few
thunderstorms do manage to develop, given the overall meteorological
environment amid very dry fuels (90-95th percentile ERCs), lightning
ignitions are possible. See the previous discussion for more
information.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026/

...Synopsis...
An upper high will continue to slowly drift westward over the
Southwest and expand from off the southern California coast through
the southern Plains. Upper-level heights will build over the
Intermountain West, but an upper-level trough will approach the
Pacific Northwest overnight. Enough monsoonal moisture remains for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the higher terrain across
the Four Corners region but a drying trend continues.

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are forecast from
central/eastern Idaho into western Montana during the afternoon and
evening. An IsoDryT area has been maintained as probabilities of
receiving more than 0.1" of rain is less than 50%. Southern portions
of the IsoDryT area were trimmed due to some pockets of recent
wetting rain. There remains some forecast uncertainty regarding
coverage and location of storms due to the smoke that could inhibit
insolation and thus terrain circulations that would aid convective
development. Additionally, a cluster of high-based storms may
persist of overnight in portions western/central Montana.

Locally elevated conditions are likely again across portions of the
Inland Northwest into the western/northern Great Basin.
West-southwest sustained winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph
amid minimum RH of 5-20% are expected across these areas.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$