011
FNUS21 KWNS 031642
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

Primary adjustment with this forecast update was to expand the
Elevated fire weather area southwestward into portions of
southern/central California - including the interior foothills, the
Antelope Valley, and across southwest Santa Barbara County. Hot
(90-100F), dry (7-20%), and breezy onshore winds (sustained
west/north surface winds 15-20 mph) will promote several hours of
elevated fire weather conditions across the interior mountains and
Antelope Valley this afternoon and evening. Locally critical fire
weather conditions are also possible over the interior foothills,
where surface winds gusting between 25-40 mph are likely. Gusty
sundowner winds, with warm and dry conditions, should also promote a
few hours of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of
southwest Santa Barbara County - especially as wind gusts peak
during the late afternoon/evening.

While locally elevated fire weather conditions may occur farther
north across the coastal ranges of central/northern California,
conditions appear to be too spotty/brief for an Elevated fire
weather area. Nevertheless, any fires in this area could exhibit
rapid growth/spread.

Only minor changes were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area
over the Northwest based on the latest high-resolution guidance.
Strong-to-severe and erratic outflow winds in excess of 50 mph are
possible nearby any thunderstorms. Please see the SPC Day 1
Convective Outlook for more information on the severe weather threat
in the area.

The remainder of the forecast remains on-track. Please see the
previous discussion below for more information on today`s fire
weather forecast.

..Elliott.. 08/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025/

...Synopsis...
A midlevel trough will move eastward from the eastern Pacific into
the Northwest through the period. Within the base of the trough,
enhanced midlevel westerly flow will overspread a dry/deeply mixed
boundary layer across the Great Basin during the afternoon. This
will favor breezy/gusty surface winds (around 15-20 mph) amid
single-digit to lower teens RH, and given receptive fuels, elevated
fire-weather conditions are expected.

Preceding the trough, forcing for ascent will aid in afternoon
thunderstorm development across the northern Great Basin and
Intermountain West. Across parts of northern CA, southeastern OR,
and southwestern ID, inverted-V soundings (around 0.5-0.7 inch PW)
and quick storm motions will lead to mostly dry thunderstorms. These
storms will pose a risk of lightning-induced ignitions and
strong-severe outflow winds. For details on the severe-storm risk,
see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms
(with higher storms coverage) are also expected farther north across
east-central OR, though these storms should be accompanied by
measurable rainfall. Lightning-induced ignitions will still be
possible along the peripheries of rain cores.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$