891
FNUS21 KWNS 231602
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1001 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025

Valid 231700Z - 241200Z

An Elevated risk area has been introduced for portions of far West
Texas and central to southern New Mexico. Morning surface
observations show very dry conditions in place (dewpoints in the
single digits to low teens) with a very dry residual mixed layer
above a shallow nocturnal inversion sampled in the 12z EPZ sounding.
Winds increasing to around 15 mph should coincide with RH minimums
in the low to mid teens per recent ensemble guidance, which has
trended towards higher probabilities of sustained elevated fire
weather conditions over a region with slowly increasing ERCs (which
currently sit at around the 80-90th percentile). Forecast concerns
regarding portions of WY and NE remain on track as outlined in the
previous discussion below.

..Moore.. 02/23/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Feb 23 2025/

...Synopsis...
Warm and dry downslope winds are forecast in the lee of the
Sacramento and Sandia Manzano mountains of eastern New Mexico, with
winds up to 20 MPH and relative humidity values dropping below 15%.
Across portions of eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle,
winds could reach as high as 25-30 MPH with relative humidity below
20%. However, current ERC fuels guidance across both regions
suggests there is little support for wildfire ignition and spread,
especially with some recent wetting rainfall across portions of
Wyoming and Nebraska in the last 5 days. Given the lack of
supportive fuels, no fire-weather highlights will be introduced at
this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$