369
FNUS21 KWNS 161620
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF VIRGINIA...

Today`s fire weather outlook remains largely on-track with only
minor modifications needed based on the latest high-resolution
ensemble guidance. The primary changes with this outlook update were
to expand the Elevated fire weather area farther south into portions
of South Carolina/Georgia and northeastward into portions of
Maryland/Delaware/New Jersey. Locally critical fire weather
conditions appear probable across much of the Elevated fire weather
area as near-critical dry/breezy northwesterly post-frontal surface
winds overlap critically receptive fuels owing to ongoing drought
conditions (with annual/seasonal ERC percentiles near records).

Please see the previous discussion below for more information on
today`s fire weather forecast including the potential for locally
Elevated fire weather conditions across the Midwest.

..Elliott.. 11/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025/

...Synopsis...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon for
portions of central Virginia with more widespread elevated fire
weather conditions likely for much of the Mid-Atlantic region as
northwesterly winds increase within a post-frontal regime.
Elsewhere, dry and breezy conditions are expected across the Midwest
as an unseasonably dry air mass moves into the region.

...Mid-Atlantic...
07 UTC surface observations show a cold front pushing east across
the upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region. Although light
rain may occur prior to sunrise, most locations are not expected to
receive appreciable rainfall, which will maintain very dry fuel
conditions. Northwesterly winds are expected to increase behind the
frontal passage through mid-afternoon with most guidance suggesting
winds will peak between 15-20 mph across much of the region. Dry air
advecting into the region will promote RH reductions into the 20-35%
range from the Carolinas into the Chesapeake Bay area. A 700-500 mb
speed max is forecast to traverse the northern Blue Ridge Mountains
into central VA around peak heating. This will not only regionally
augment winds (which may gust upwards of 35-40 mph), but will
enhance downslope drying and promote a corridor of critical fire
weather conditions.

...Midwest...
Early-morning surface observations show dry air pushing
southeastward from the upper MS Valley into the Midwest region.
Dewpoints in the teens to low 20s are expected to spread into
eastern IL and IN through peak heating, which will promote RH
reductions into the 20-30% range, and possibly as low as 15% for
some locations. Building surface high pressure will largely limit
wind speeds and negate a more substantial fire weather threat.
However, light fire activity has been noted in recent days owing to
ongoing drought conditions, so localized fire concerns appear
possible where winds can increase to around 10-15 mph.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$