Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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928
FNUS21 KWNS 310717
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A potent upper-level trough will begin to move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest tonight, with upper-level ridging ahead of this
trough extending from the Desert Southwest into the northern
Rockies. An embedded, mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to
precede the larger trough and move from northern California into the
northern Rockies through this afternoon while weakening. Hot, dry,
and locally breezy conditions are likely across much of the West,
especially the Intermountain West, this afternoon, with locally
elevated fire weather conditions possible. The lack of widespread,
sustained surface winds above 15 mph precludes the inclusion of
Elevated highlights, however.

Isolated, drier thunderstorms are possible across portions of
central/eastern Idaho and southwest Montana this afternoon and
evening, but the latest SREF/HREF guidance continues to suggest less
than a 20% chance and generally less than a 10% chance of
thunderstorms. Somewhat greater chances for thunderstorms exist
farther east into portions of Wyoming, but this activity is likely
to be wetter and over less receptive fuels. Elsewhere, monsoonal
thunderstorms remain likely over portions of southeastern Arizona
and along/east of the Continental Divide in Colorado and New Mexico.

..Chalmers.. 07/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$