620
FNUS21 KWNS 101645
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Valid 101700Z - 111200Z

Minor adjustments were made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm chances
across Arizona in alignment with recent trends in hi-res guidance.
Otherwise, the Elevated area remains unchanged. See previous
discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 08/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns will continue for today across parts of the
Four Corners/Southwest region. Early-morning water-vapor imagery
depicts a pronounced mid-level perturbation traversing UT/WY as of
06 UTC. This feature is expected to reach AZ/NM by peak heating this
afternoon, which will induce west/northwesterly mid-level flow
across the greater Four Corners region. Although low-level pressure
gradient winds will likely remain somewhat modest (generally around
15 mph), deep mixing will promote downward mixing of 20-30 mph gusts
across far southern UT into northern AZ and northwest NM. Dry
conditions will persist and support another day of RH minimums in
the single digits and elevated fire weather conditions. More
aggressive solutions, such as the HRRR and RAP that have a tendency
to over-mix, hint that elevated conditions may extend as far north
as eastern UT/western CO, but general ensemble consensus is meager.
Therefore opted to maintain highlights mainly over AZ/NM where
confidence in sustained elevated conditions is higher.

In addition to supporting elevated fire weather conditions, the
mid-level perturbation will also promote isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development across the greater Southwest and southern
High Plains region. Convection developing along the Mogollon Rim
will likely develop on the fringe of the deeper monsoonal moisture
where PWATs should remain near 0.75 inches and LCLs will likely
reach 3-4 km. These thermodynamic conditions were observed yesterday
afternoon/evening (e.g. the 00z ABQ sounding) across the region and
yielded isolated dry lightning strikes. As such, a similar risk for
dry lightning should manifest this afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$