183
FXUS63 KDVN 231139
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
639 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 20-30% coverage of showers S/E of Quad Cities ending by
  mid morning.

- Pleasant weather through the middle of next week with
  Fall-like temperatures and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Weak convergence and pooling surface moisture (dew points
in the mid/upper 60s) along a cool front will maintain
low chances (generally 20-30% coverage) of showers until
mid morning. The pooling moisture will make it feel
rather humid this morning. However, big changes in terms
of drier and cooler air are on the way and we have to
look no further than the Dakotas and parts of MN/NE to
see this, where dew points are in the 40s and 50s and temps
in the 50s to lower 60s. We`ll begin to feel the changes as
early as late morning and afternoon. As we mix more deeply to
near 850 hPa this afternoon we`ll tap into stronger winds
leading to breezy/gusty conditions with northwest winds 15-25
mph. This deeper mixing into a drying atmospheric column will
draw down dew points into the 50s this afternoon, and combined
with the winds will make for quite the refreshing feel.

Tonight, under clearing skies and light northwest winds it
will be a no AC required night with lows mainly in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Overall, the pattern through much of next week will feature
a broad eastern trough, with an upper low initially traversing
the Great Lakes region through early next week. This will
allow for cyclonic flow and favor a period of below normal and
rather Fall-like temperatures Sunday into the middle of next
week. Highs will be in the 60s/70s and lows in the 40s/50s.
It`s possible we could be within 3-5 degrees of record lows
for some locations Monday night and again Tuesday night, as
surface high pressure builds into the region providing for an
ideal radiational cooling setup and more widespread lows in the 40s.
The forecast remains dry, but with the cyclonic flow can`t
totally rule out a few diurnally driven showers, particularly
Sunday into Monday. Forecast soundings for Sunday PM show
a rather shallow layer of moisture around 850 hPa and dry-sub cloud
air, thus it may be more stratocumulus and possibly a few sprinkles
especially N/NE of the Quad Cities on the edge of the stronger
cyclonic flow. All in all, we`re in line for some spectacular
weather for outdoor activities through mid-week with very
comfortable days, and rather cool nights that will likely require
a sweatshirt or light jacket.

As the trough begins to deamplify and shift east late week,
ridging will build into the Plains that should allow for
temperatures to modify closer to seasonal normals. There could
be some precipitation chances at times late week into next
weekend, but nothing very organized or heavy rather more spotty
and light.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Pockets of low stratus and fog with IFR to LIFR conditions will
impact DBQ at the start of the period, and could briefly impact
CID. This should mix out by mid morning with VFR conditions
expected the rest of the TAF period. A cold front will continue
to move through the terminals until mid morning with a wind
shift from the northwest. These northwest winds will turn breezy
with gusts 20-25 kts by this afternoon before diminishing below
10 kts after sunset.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure