967
FXUS63 KDVN 051903
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
203 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally seasonal temps expected into next week, with periodic
  shower chances greatest on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Wildfire smoke aloft remains across the area this afternoon,
funneling back westward around high pressure shifting from
the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Satellite shows a
more narrow corridor of higher smoke concentration extending
from Lake Michigan into central Illinois, and HRRR smoke
product suggests this will move back into eastern Iowa through
this evening. Can`t totally rule out some near surface smoke,
but HRRR near surface concentrations are much less than we`ve
seen at times over the previous few days. Aside from the smoke,
we`ll continue to see increasing cloudiness ahead of weak
low amplitude shortwave energy rippling toward the area in
the semi-zonal/WSW flow aloft. Radar shows quite a bit of
returns out west, but this is overcoming some dry air and the
result in mainly sprinkles or light rain with trace to a few
hundredths of an inch of measurable. This activity will be
outrunning the low to mid level moisture as it shifts eastward
tonight, and thus should largely evaporate with mostly virga
although some sprinkles and an isolated very light shower can`t
be ruled out mainly along/west of Cedar Rapids to Macomb.
Winds will remain light tonight, but the increase in clouds and
drier low levels should limit the fog potential with perhaps a
few patches in valleys/rivers still possible. Lows tonight look
to be fairly seasonal and in the 50s for most. If clouds linger
in some areas lows could stay around 60 or in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Overall the pattern looks to transition from semi-zonal/WSW flow
aloft to a Great Lakes low and attendant northwest flow by
early next week. In this transition, models agree on ejecting a
shortwave trough eastward through the region on Saturday ahead
of the digging upper low east of the Canadian Rockies. This
period /Saturday mainly during the day/ looks to be our first
better chance of measurable rain. Right now PoPs are in the chance
category (30-50%), but wouldn`t be surprised to see these go up
with NBM 24 hour probabilities for measurable rain >.01 at 60-70%
ending 12z Sunday. Instability looks somewhat low, but still
sufficient for a few storms possibly and while shear also looks
rather low may have to keep an eye on any potential augmentation
to kinematics from the shortwave. Another round of shower chances
is on tap for Sunday attendant to a bout of upper diffluence and
PVA ahead of the upper low digging toward the Upper Midwest.
Despite these rain chances, I don`t foresee an all day type rain
to warrant cancelling outdoor activities, but plan on dodging some
rain at times.

Early next week we`ll see slightly cooler than normal temperatures,
and periodic bouts of clouds and shower chances, as the upper low
settles over the Great Lakes and waves rotate down around it.

Beyond, the pattern looks to turn warmer mid to late next week with
some amplification of an upper ridge across the region. There is
quite a bit of differences on the magnitude of the ridge, and so
confidence is low with the extent of the warmup. In addition if the
ridge is weaker then there is the potential for some energy to
break through the ridge and shift eastward leading to some shower and
storm chances. Something to monitor in the days ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Patchy valley/river fog is possible again tonight (07z-12z), but
low confidence on impacts to terminals given the patchy nature
and also cloud cover precludes mention. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected with increasing clouds into this evening. Can`t
rule out some sprinkles or an isolated light shower (10-15%
chance) late this afternoon/early evening and then again later
tonight. Winds will generally be light from E/NE, but may
sporadically gust 14-18 kt this afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure