445
FXUS63 KDVN 011742
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1242 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue hazy skies into
  the start of the weekend. An Air Quality Alert remains in
  effect for Illinois through tonight and Iowa now through
  Saturday night.

- Cooler and less humid conditions will persist through the
  weekend.

- Temperatures warm closer to normal next week, with a few low
  rain chances (15-30 percent).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

The wildfire smoke/haze remains entrenched throughout the region early this
morning, with visibilities being reduced to 3-6sm. Some improvement was
noted in near surface smoke along portions of Lake Michigan, and the
HRRR smoke model shows some abatement/easing of near-surface smoke and
improvement in visibilities is possible today advecting in from Lake
Michigan on northeast low level flow. Air Quality Alerts remain in place
for all of Iowa and Illinois through tonight. While some improvement is
possible near the surface today, HRRR and RRFS vertically integrated smoke
models and late Thursday afternoon satellite imagery support the smoke
aloft will remain plentiful today, and likely through the weekend, ushered
in on W/NW flow aloft resulting in hazy skies and some vibrant/colorful
sunrises and sunsets.

Overall, surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature
today providing a continuation of comfortable conditions and cooler
than normal highs. There is a signal in some of the CAM guidance
for a light shower today, particularly in NW Illinois potentially
developing off a lake boundary/convergence axis and advecting in.
Moisture is marginal and uncertain. Some of the CAM guidance
suggesting activity from parts of NW Illinois into far E Iowa has
surface dew points recovering into mid 60s, which seems a bit
high with the continued drier NE flow advection. Thus, feeling
would be more in the way of mainly cumulus development and
possibly a few sprinkles at worst, thus no mentionable PoPs attim.
The smoke and bouts of cirrus and diurnal cumulus will likely
temper highs to the mid/upper 70s today. Tonight, with light winds
and clear to partly cloudy skies lows are expected to drop mainly
in the mid/upper 50s making for another very comfortable night to
give the AC a break.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Surface high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature into the
start of next week, as it remains parked over the western Great Lakes.
This should lead to a continuation of comfortable, dry conditions on
easterly flow with some gradual moderation and more areas seeing highs
in the lower 80s by Sunday and especially Monday. The W/NW flow aloft
will continue to draw in upper level smoke leading to a continuation of
hazy skies.

The high pressure gradually begins to retreat by mid to late next week.
This will support light S/SE flow and a continued moderation of
temperatures closer to typical averages for early August (highs in the
lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s). This light return flow will
also bring up humidity to typical levels and could support at least
some low chances for rain at times with any approaching shortwaves.
Close proximity to residual mid level ridging and overall a somewhat more
subsidence favored regime may act to erode/weaken any precipitation as
it approaches. This would tend to keep any rain amounts largely on
the light side, which would be some good news coming off a record wet
or top 5 wettest July for many.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Aug 1 2025

Areas of cumulus early this afternoon with bases between 2,500
and 4,000 ft will slowly expand westward. A few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out. Northeast winds will hold between 7-12 kt.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue in the air into at
least the first half of the weekend resulting in some reduced
surface and slantwise visibilties. Similar to last night/this
morning, smoke may further settle into the lower levels after
dark tonight yielding areas of MVFR visibility or even possible
IFR (more favored at/near DBQ). Very light winds Saturday morning
will mean any reduced visibility may take a while to mix out.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1240 PM Fri CDT Aug 1 2025

Record Low Temperatures for the upcoming night:

August 2:
KBRL: 52/1907
KCID: 49/1927
KDBQ: 50/2009 and previous years.
KMLI: 51/1985

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Air Quality Alert for all of IA counties through 8 A.M.
Sunday.
IL...Air Quality Alert until midnight CDT tonight for ILZ001-002-
007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...Friedlein
CLIMATE...Friedlein