459
FXUS63 KDVN 151119
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
519 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy conditions will be experienced today, with a continuation
  of seasonally mild weather, despite most of the day in cold
  advection behind a cold front.

- Active pattern returns next week, with passing storm system
  with rainfall expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Yesterday`s near record warmth has continued into a very mild night,
as lows overnight so far have only fallen to the upper 50s to lower
60s.  This mild start, under cloud cover is handled well by the NBM
this morning. Looking to our northwest, a rapidly moving cold front
is found from northwest Iowa to near Minneapolis as of 1 AM.
This front separates rather gusty southwest winds from nearly as
strong northwest winds behind it. Despite that front`s position
well to our northwest, it is expected to make fast tracks
through our area this morning. In fact, this front may already
be making it`s way through our CWA at 6 AM today, and exiting
our east/south by mid morning. In the wake of this front,
northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will be common through the
afternoon. Decreasing cloud cover behind the front will allow
for some increased mixing behind the front, but it does not look
like we`re going to see widespread 70s as far northwest as the
NBM suggests today. I`m preferring Conshort guidance highs,
which is placed squarely in the mean today. This would keep us
well our of record territory, but still quite mild, in the lower
60s north, to upper 60s central, and near 70 in the south. If
there were a good kite flying day in November, this would be the
one.

Tonight, breezy conditions will slowly subside through late evening,
as clear skies and CAA draw down temperatures into the 40s in most
areas by mid evening. The northwest winds will continue to remain
over 5 mph through the night, helping keep lows from falling much
below the mid 30s in many areas. Our north could see some upper 20s
with somewhat stronger CAA in the north.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 208 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Cool high pressure will eventually be centered over our CWA by
Sunday night. Unfortunately, that means most of Sunday will
continue to see northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph, and cool highs
in the upper 40s to low 50s. Under the high pressure ridge
Sunday night, light winds will help temperatures fall to the
mid 20s northeast, to lower 30s southwest (under increasing mid
clouds).

Monday through Tuesday afternoon, a prolonged over-running event is
expected over the Cornbelt. While models are varied on the exact
latitude of where this band of rain will be centered, the forecast
of cool, cloudy, and damp remains in place for Monday late afternoon
through Tuesday afternoon. At this time, we appear warm enough for
this to be a rain event in all areas during the event, with no
winter hazards expected.

Tuesday night-Saturday...an active weather pattern will begin to
take shape, with several waves moving through the southwest flow
aloft. Models continue to disagree on the evolution and speed of a
longwave trof moving east out of the desert southwest with surface
low placement differences in solutions as much as 450 miles.
Regardless of which model verifies, a strong dynamic low pressure
system will bring a prolonged period of widespread rainfall, large
temperature swings, and strong winds to the Midwest. This system
could arrive as early as Wednesday night lasting through Friday for
the local area. The NBM is around climatology for temperatures for
this period and have left values alone given the amount of
uncertainty. Further details will be ironed out in the coming days
as models hopefully come into better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with winds
being the main aviation concern. A cold front will pass through
the area between 12-18z, with gusty winds being seen on both
sides of the front. Ahead of the front, we are seeing southwest
winds gusting upwards to 20 KTs. As the front passes, we will be
left with northwesterly winds through the day, with gusts
upwards to 25-30 KTs, especially at DBQ/CID.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gunkel