294
FXUS63 KDVN 101046
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
446 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures will continue today with the
  potential for flurries across Putnam and eastern Bureau
  Counties.

- A warm-up will push temperatures above normal for the second
  half of the week.

- The weather pattern looks to turn more active next weekend.
  However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the
  evolution of a potential storm system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A continuation of the below normal temperatures will be seen today
and tonight along with breezy conditions. Wind chills will be in the
teens and 20s for both today and tonight.

Return flow develops in earnest aloft tonight with a weak
disturbance passing through the area. The sub-cloud layer is
extremely dry and averages about 3 kilometers in depth. Only the NAM
saturates the lower atmosphere but still has the lowest kilometer
quite dry. Since the NAM is the odd model out we have elected to go
dry late tonight. At the very worst some flurries `may` occur in
northwest Illinois.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 251 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Tuesday through Friday night
Assessment...A certainty (>99%) confidence of temperatures
warming above normal

Strong return flow aloft will push an upper level thermal ridge into
the Midwest. After a day of near normal temperatures Tuesday,
temperatures will trend above normal for the second half of the
week. The downside to the warm-up will be breezy conditions that
develop during the strongest warm-up period late in the week.

Saturday through Sunday
Assessment...low to medium (20-40%) confidence regarding the
evolution of a potential storm system

Right now the model consensus has a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain
with the better chances currently focused on Saturday night and
Sunday.

However, considerable disagreement exists next weekend over how the
potential storm system may evolve. The differences for the most part
appear to be related to how much phasing occurs.

Interestingly, the deterministic ECMWF/CMC/GFS do not show much in
the way of phasing and only drag a cold front through the area. The
ICON model brings a seasonably strong (roughly 990-995 mb low)
system through the area (due to more phasing). The UKMET phases much
more completely and brings a very strong (sub 990 mb) system through
the Midwest.

Saturday will see anomalously warm temperatures (positive delta of
10-25 degrees depending upon the model). Climatologically, to get
this strong of a positive delta on temperatures one needs to have a
relatively strong system (sub 995 mb) with windy conditions. Thus
the ECMWF/CMC/GFS deterministic solutions of just a cold front do
not look correct.

The ensembles of the respective models do offer more insight.

First, the mean of the various ensembles minimally have a seasonably
strong (995 mb) storm system with the center passing to the west and
north of the area. That makes sense and would place the area on the
warm side of the system with anomalously warm temperatures and windy
conditions.

Individual members of the various global ensembles show considerable
differences on the potential strength of the system. There are
several members from each ensemble that have strong low centers (sub
990 mb), and, a couple of members that are very strong (sub 980 mb).

So the key messages for next weekend are 1) a storm system
(potentially strong) will impact the Midwest and 2) Saturday
will be the warmer of the two days.

With a better than 50 percent probability of being on the warm side
of the system, the Gulf would be fully open to supply moisture for
thunderstorms. The question then becomes what are the chances for
any severe storms. Here the answer is not straight forward. The
weekend system has a 40-60% probability of developing in a non-linear
fashion. As a result, the models will continuously be playing catch-
up once the system begins developing (nwp models do better with
linear systems). Thus this far out the severe risk is not known but
it is non-zero.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 443 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Steep low level lapse rates should allow winds to gust up to 20
knots through 18z/10. Although no guidance shows it, the same
steep lapse rates should allow diurnal stratocumulus clouds to
develop anytime after 16z/10 with a sct-bkn CIG 3.0-3.5 kft AGL.
After 00z/11 high pressure moves into the western Great Lakes
allowing winds to slowly back to the southwest but under 10
knots.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08