128
FXUS63 KDVN 191904
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
204 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued dry with unseasonably warm days into early next week,
possibly within reach of record highs Sunday/Monday.

- Fire danger remains elevated during the drought, but slackening
winds and gradual increase in low level moisture will keep from
being critical over the next few days.

- Chance (20-40%) for showers Monday night/Tuesday morning in the
  south, but drought relief is unlikely with any rain amounts
  very light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Today has been a quiet weather day, with less wind, and slightly
higher humidity than previous days.  As of 2 PM, temperatures are in
the lower to mid 70s, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 30s to
lower 40s. Winds have been generally 8 to 12 MPH, with not much
gustiness.  There`s a hint of cirrus over our northern half of the
CWA, but all of this is translucent with this day representing
excellent weather for outdoor activities.

Tonight, the stationary boundary to our northwest over MN and
Nebraska will drift north and wash out a bit.  This should keep our
weather stable, with weak south/southwesterly surface flow and warm
advection. Lows tonight in the upper 40s north where winds remain
coupled to the lower 40s south with light winds can be expected. Any
location that does see locally calm winds tonight can expect to see
lower 40s given the dry air in place.

Sunday, like today, plenty of sun is expected, with relatively dry
air in place. Warm southwest winds are expected, blowing at 10 to 15
mph, gusting to the lower 20s, with temperatures peaking in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. These predicted highs are just short of
records, which can be found in the Climate section below.

Like today, Sunday`s agricultural fire risk (GFDIag) is expected to
reach the "high" range during he afternoon hours, representing
an enhanced fire potential. This will be mentioned in graphics, as
current values (9-12) are are in the lower end of GFDIag`s high
range (8-16).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Sunday night and Monday, a near repeat is expected as the upcoming
low pressure aloft remains well west of our area, resulting in
southerly flow at the surface, and southwesterly flow aloft. Some
increase in high clouds can be expected Monday as the upper level
low moves into the western Plains. The result is another marginal
high fire weather day for unharvested fields, and another close to-
but short of record forecast high temperature in the lower 80s.

Deterministic and ensembles continue to agree on a filling upper
level closed low, as it shifts from the central Rockies to the
Midwest Monday night through Tuesday. The filling nature of the low
/weakening lift suggest rain chances should be low (20-50%
especially south), and any rainfall amounts minimal.

Behind this system, an upper level trough is forecast to dig south
out of Canada and through the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will
be accompanied by a cold front ushering in a cool down closer to
seasonal normals for mid to late week.  Models have generally
reduced the chance for any Fgen forcing for the area Tuesday night
and Wednesday, with this signal now forecast well north of the area
into Minnesota, still pops will remain in ~10% range in that period.

Overall, both the ECE and GEFS ensembles show 24 hour probabilities
of QPF >0.5 inch are less than 10 percent for rain chances next
week, thus it`s very unlikely we`ll see any relief from the drought,
and with the signal for a warming trend to commence again by next
weekend look for the ongoing drought conditions to only worsen.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Sunny skies will given way to a clear overnight, with only a
thin passing cirrus at times through the period. Winds will be
southerly generally 5 to 12 kts, but will average south today,
then southwest after 14Z Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 128 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Record High Temperatures October 20 2024

Burlington   85/1979 and previous years
Cedar Rapids 84/1953
Dubuque      82/1953
Moline       84/1979 and previous years

Record High Temperatures October 21 2024

Burlington   87/1899
Cedar Rapids 85/1947
Dubuque      86/1947
Moline       86/1947

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin/McClure
AVIATION...Ervin
CLIMATE...McClure