766
FXUS63 KDVN 031912
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
212 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain increases on Friday and Friday night.

- Much cooler early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

CAM`s have slowed the arrival of rain tonight so have now gone
dry for the entire forecast area. Looks like the rain will
gradually increase in our southern counties Friday morning then
spread northward during the afternoon. This rain caused by a
wave of low pressure that will zip northeast in the southwest
flow aloft from the lower MS Valley to the OH River Valley.
Lows tonight in the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.
Highs on Friday in the lower to mid 50s with the clouds and rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Total rainfall amounts Friday through Friday night should range
from around one-half inch in our far south to less than a tenth
of an inch from about I-80 on northward.

Global models have rain continuing on Friday night but then
ending by Saturday. The models now have much of Saturday through
Sunday dry even though the NBM holds onto chance pops on
Saturday. Later shifts can monitor model trends to go drier if
needed. Highs this weekend will be below normal in the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

The persistent Plains trough begins to shift eastward late
Sunday into early next week but troughing remains in place
through the remainder of the period. Global models are similar
in diving a vigorous trough into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
with a band of snow showers pushing into northwest Illinois on
Monday morning, mainly north of Interstate 80. However, the 12z
run of the GFS and ECMWF have really backed off on the snow
showers, keeping them to our north and east where the better
forcing will be. But for now will maintain chance pops. It will
be colder with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s and highs in
the 40s on Monday. h8 temps drop to -4 to -8C across our area.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Should be dry with temperatures
rebounding into the lower 60s by Wednesday. Confidence is low on
pcpn chances on Wednesday with a weak low pressure system
tracking just to our south.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Areas of MVFR CIGS should scatter out this afternoon to become
VFR through the remainder of this taf cycle. Some light rain may
spread northward towards KBRL Friday morning. However, confidence
is low with regard to timing so for now have left the mention
out of the TAF. Northwest winds around 10 kt becoming light and
variable tonight, then east on Friday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase