244
FXUS63 KDVN 011043
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
543 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry air moves into the area, leaving us with seasonal
  temperatures and passing clouds heading towards midweek. Low-
  end chance for storms Wednesday night in our northwest.

- Fourth of July is forecast to be quite toasty, with
  temperatures in the low-mid 90s and increasing humidity.

- Pattern becomes more active this weekend and beyond, as
  southwest flow kicks in, increasing temperatures and moisture.
  Thus, very warm conditions return, with increasing chances for
  showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Post frontal airmass and surface high pressure move into the area
through Wednesday. This will be characterized as a period of largely
quiet weather, with seasonal temperatures today, trending upwards on
Wednesday. Winds will remain light and northwesterly today, ushering
dry air into the region. Thus, we will be less humid over the
next two days, with dewpoints remaining in the low-mid 60s.
Otherwise, we will be left with mostly clear skies, aside from
diurnal cumulus developing each afternoon.

A weak wave moves into the area from the northwest late on
Wednesday, which can bring in low-end chances for showers/storms.
SPC has highlighted our far northwestern counties in a Marginal
Risk, level 1/5, for severe weather on Wednesday, largely focusing
on Wednesday night. Guidance seems to hint at a decaying line of
convection that may come close to the area, but dry air in place
should help to eat away at these storms, which may leave us dry
through the night. Currently, our confidence is low on the chance
for storms. Thus, we will stick with the NBM PoPs at this time, with
only 15-30% chances in our northwest. If we manage to get strong to
severe storms in that area, main threats will be wind and hail.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Thursday will be another hot day, with increasing humidity. We
will have a weak wave move through the area midday, which can
bring through isolated showers/storms. While moisture will be on
the rise, we will still be relatively dry through the column,
which should limit coverage. Thus, confidence remains low, with
about a 15-20% chance for storms.

The 4th of July will be a toasty one, where we have an upper
ridge passing over the area, allowing southwesterly flow to kick
in. With this, we will see temperatures and moisture increase
throughout the area, with temperatures reaching the low 90s once
again. Ensemble guidance favors this, especially in our south.
The EURO Ensemble is a bit more aggressive with the heat,
indicating a large area of 70-100% chance for reaching 90+
degrees, while the GEFS generally favors such temperatures with
about a 20-40% probability. Thus, some differences exist, but
both favor increasing chances for heat starting as early as
Friday. Current forecast favors the potential for heat indices
upwards to 100 for some. With it being a holiday and plenty of
outdoor activities planned, it will be best to prepare for the
heat in advance, as well as practice heat safety during the day
as well.

Friday night and beyond will feature an active weather pattern
with several waves passing through the region. Having hot
temperatures and increasing humidity through this period will
also favor near-daily chances for precipitation. While we
currently don`t see a large widespread heavy rainfall event,
diurnal convection is favored, with some evening/overnight MCSs
not out of question. Too soon to discuss any severe threat, but
it is best to keep in mind that we are now in July and with such
heat and humidity, there will be a non-zero threat for strong
to severe convection.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with
northwest winds upwards to 10 KTs. No sig wx is expected at this
time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel