959
FXUS63 KDVN 121049
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
549 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy conditions with a significant fire danger threat will
  be seen Friday.

- Late Friday afternoon and evening, strong to severe storms are
  possible. The Storm Prediction Center has an Enhanced Risk
  (level 3 of 5) area for locations generally south of I-80
  with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) elsewhere.

- Strong winds will be possible again on Saturday.

- It will be blustery and colder Sunday with a warmup for Monday
  and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

High pressure will move east of the area today with a boundary
across MO and southern IL. Mostly sunny skies will be seen north
with partly to mostly cloudy skies across the south. It will be
warm with with nearly calm winds or a light east breeze. Highs
will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Clear skies will prevail
tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s north to lower 40s
south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

Thursday, a low will track across the gulf states as a high
pressure ridge remains over our area. Sunny skies will be seen
with winds becoming southeast. Highs will be in the mid 60s to
mid 70s. Thursday night have kept the dry blend forecast, but it
should be noted the HRRR has some convection developing across
the far SE and E counties for the mid to late evening hours as
the boundary to the south lifts northward through the area as a
warm front. Some POPs may need to be introduced in later
forecasts. Otherwise, mostly clear skies and mild temps in the
mid 40s to mid 50s are expected.

Friday the strong storm system will emerge out in the plains and
will provide the local area with strong southeast winds with
gusts of 30 to 40 mph. This, in addition to near-record highs in
the 70s to near 80, will result in a significant fire danger
risk despite dew points rising into the 50s.

Then, by mid to late afternoon, showers and storms are still
expected to develop as CAPE values build to 500 to 1000 J/kg
along with strong shear. It appears the time frame will be
sooner, with development in the 4 to 6 pm range and then quickly
surging northeast across the area through the mid to late
evening. Significant severe storms will be possible with
damaging winds (over 75 mph), large hail (over 2") and
tornadoes all possible. At this time, the main threat appears to
be wind gusts to 80 mph with the fast-moving line of storms. The
SPC has an Enhanced Risk (2 of 5) for areas generally south of
I-80 with a Slight Risk (1 of 5) elsewhere.

Saturday we will be in the dry slot as the system zips off
toward Lake Superior. Winds will remain quite strong especially
across the southeast and east CWA with gusts of 40+ mph
possible. Depending on how much rain we get, a fire danger risk
may again exist. A wider range in highs will be seen with upper
40s NW to near 60 SE and E.

Saturday night and Sunday, much colder air will be ushered into
the area on blustery NW winds behind the system. Lows will be in
the 20s to low 30s with wind chills dropping into the teens to
low 20s. Sunday will be brisk with slow clearing and highs in
the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Gusty southwest winds will be seen Monday and Tuesday with highs
in the mid 50s to mid 60s Monday and 60s to low 70s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM CDT Wed Mar 12 2025

VFR will prevail through the period with light E to NE winds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...14