636
FXUS63 KDVN 112322
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
622 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After a warm Sunday with highs in the upper 70s to 80s,
  slightly cooler weather is expected with highs in the 60s to
  70s

- A surface boundary lays out across the area tomorrow as a
  series of waves move through the flow. This will bring
  precipitation back to the area, however rainfall amounts
  should remain light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

High pressure is sliding east of the area today as an upper
level a weak upper level wave moves northeast of the area. A
stronger shortwave is expected to dig south tonight before it
moves back the NE, resulting in return flow and increasing winds
across the area tomorrow during the day. With the wave pulling
more to the north and east, the stronger winds will be across
the northwestern CWA tomorrow. Gusts to 25 kts are possible
mainly north and west of a line from Williamsburg, IA to
Manchester, IA.

At the same time, midlevel moisture associated with the wave
will pull into the area late. With the warm return flow, low
level RH is expected to be lacking. This will keep the area dry
through the day. Have gone with no pops before 00z Sunday. The
CAMs do have model reflectivity through the afternoon but don`t
expect any of that to reach the ground.

With the increased winds, and possible showers aloft, there
could be a small window when wind gusts are enhanced in the
afternoon and the 25 kt gusts may be under done. This scenario,
while possible, would result in scattered higher gusts,
especially with the showers. The GFDI for ag fields is near very
high across the northwest CWA. Could these showers increase
gusts, yes, but they would also cool the air. This would
decrease the GFDI values as well. So very borderline, isolated
very high fire danger tomorrow, and likely the conditions would
be short lived.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

More active pattern takes over as a stalled frontal boundary
serves as a foci for precipitation through the beginning of the
long term. Southwest flow aloft into Tuesday will bring
overrunning rain chances to the region as a trof digs deep into
the western CONUS by midweek. This flow, while weak locally,
will lead to chances for rain through most of the work week.
Towards the end of the period, a shortwave is expected to form
west of the are and induce cyclogenesis into next weekend. This
could be the best chance for widespread rain for our area
through the period.

Looking to Monday thru Thursday, NBM 24 total probabilities of
0.10 inches of rain remain below 50% through the period. The
best chance for 0.1 or more looks to be with the weekend system.
As such, any precip that occurs looks to be light and while we
will take anything, nothing spells drought buster through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The
only exception is at DBQ, which has the potential for MVFR fog
late tonight into early Sunday morning. Latest models are mixed
on if fog will develop there tonight, so uncertainty remains if
this will occur. For now, have continued the TEMPO group for
DBQ, but raised the visibility restrictions to 5SM instead of
4SM. Southeast winds will strengthen after sunrise Sunday,
leading to gusts between 20 to 25 knots area-wide.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Schultz