534
FXUS63 KDVN 261926
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory remains in effect for a portion of the area this afternoon
  into the early evening. Additional heat headlines may be
  needed this weekend, particularly on Sunday.

- Strong to severe storms remain possible this afternoon and
  evening, with damaging winds being the main threat.

- With a wet pattern across the area and a daily risk of showers
  and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall, area
  rivers are expected to see rises. Refer to the hydrology
  section for more information.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Hot and humid conditions were observed across the area, with
heat indices around 2 PM this afternoon around the 95 to 102
degree range, and temperatures hovering around 90 degrees for
most locations. We are keeping an eye on a line of showers and
storms that have developed over central Iowa ahead of a cold
front that will eventually cross our area by this evening into
the overnight hours, albeit in a decaying fashion after midnight
tonight. Before then, some air mass convection is progged by
some of the CAMs late this afternoon as instability builds to
the tune of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Although deep-layer shear
appears to be quite meager (<25 knots), steep low-level lapse
rates and high Pwats to around 2 inches should support the
threat for locally strong winds due to wet microbursts. SPC has
maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather for
areas along and northwest of a Sigourney Iowa to Galena Illinois
line, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms
elsewhere in our CWA. Along the Highway 20 corridor, low-level
shear appears to be stronger due to a more veering wind profile
instead of a uni-directional profile farther south, so a brief
tornado can`t be ruled out across our far north.

Friday looks to be largely dry, with the line of showers and storms
diminishing to only a few showers by sunrise. CAM guidance suggests
very little in the way of additional activity along the front as it
sweeps through the CWA. Also, the front should help usher in some
cooler conditions, with high temperatures warming to the upper
70s north to the middle 80s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Friday night through Monday
Assessment...Very high (>90%) of heat and humidity continuing.

Heat and humidity builds back in for the weekend with Sunday
being the hottest day. It is possible for heat indices to once
again warm to above 100 degrees F as temperatures warm to near
90 degrees with lower to middle 70s dew points. LREF exceedance
probabilities of heat indices of 100 degrees or more are around
10 to 30% - something to keep an eye on.

With the heat dome back into the area for Sunday, the question
becomes will a weak upper level disturbance approaching the area
generate diurnal convection. The model consensus suggests this with
a 30 to 50% coverage Sunday afternoon/evening.

An approaching front on Monday (associated with the pattern change
aloft) raises questions regarding the rain potential. Several
deterministic model runs suggest very little in the way of rain.
However, there are several members from the respective ensemble runs
that generate rain. Thus, the model consensus is biased toward
the ensembles but the areal coverage for any rain is only
20-40%.

Monday night through Wednesday
Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence on near normal temperatures.
Low (<25%) confidence on rain chances.

The pattern change to west-northwest flow aloft will help keep
temperatures around or slightly above normal. With the heat dome
suppressed southward, the more tropical moisture that would
fuel storms is not present. Thus, the deterministic model runs
and nearly all of their respective ensemble members have dry
conditions Monday night through Wednesday.

However, there are weak disturbances in the flow aloft moving
through the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Thus, we cannot fully
rule out the possibility of a rogue storm developing during the
diurnal heating cycle on Tuesday and Wednesday. If this were to
occur, areal coverage would be under 10 percent.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

VFR conditions will continue with widespread FEW to BKN daytime
cumulus clouds in place. We are watching a broken line of
showers and storms approaching eastern Iowa from the west ahead
of a cold front, which will eventually move through this evening
into the overnight hours tonight. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe, with locally strong wind gusts to around 40
knots possible along with MVFR/IFR visibility reductions under
heavy downpours. This afternoon, we can`t rule out an isolated
storm, so used PROB30 groups to highlight this threat. By Friday
morning after sunrise, MVFR ceilings are possible, along with a
wind shift behind the front.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025

Forecast crests along portions of the Cedar River have trended lower
into next week due to less rainfall anticipated over the next 24
hours, particularly across the upstream section of the basin
(northwest of Vinton). Additional rounds of heavy rainfall over the
weekend into early next week could result in changes to the timing
and magnitude of the forecast crests. However, the latest river
level forecasts are only accounting for forecast rainfall (QPF) over
the next 24 hours. Confidence has increased enough at Marengo along
the Iowa River to potentially reach Minor flood stage by this
weekend, so have issued a River Flood Watch for this site.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for IAZ052-053-
     064>068-077-078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ007-009-
     015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...08/Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz
HYDROLOGY...Uttech