800
FXUS63 KDVN 230533
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1133 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures are still expected into next week, where
  highs will be above normal, aiding in melting snow.

- A few systems look to bring chances (20-40%) of light precipitation,
  in the form of rain, to our region Monday night and again
  Wednesday into Wednesday night

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1126 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

Zonal flow aloft with a ridge building into the area will lead
to WAA into the area tonight and tomorrow. As dewpoints increase
and temperatures rise, we look to be above freezing across the
entire area tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Areas with
deeper snowpack will likely not warm as much, however we will
see temperatures and moisture increase enough to lead to melting
across the entire CWA tomorrow. A weak wave aloft will bring
clouds to the area later tonight and into the early afternoon
before sun breaks out again. As far as highs go tomorrow, there
is a wide range in possibilities. This is tied to the cloud
cover, if it clears out sooner than forecast we could be 3 to 5
degrees higher than forecast. The BC models are really trying to
go warmer. This is definitely a target of opportunity for later
shifts.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The GEFS and ECMWF ensemble mean H85 temperatures continue to
show values around 7 to 9 degrees C by Monday morning. These
values would be around the 90th percentile of the ECMWF ensemble
850 mb temperature percentiles and the SPC sounding database,
so it will be quite warm for late February. Above freezing dew
point temperatures return by Sunday and particularly on Monday,
which should help accelerate melting of the current snowpack,
and that could lead to some bouts of fog for Sunday night and
Monday night due to extra moisture in the boundary layer, so
something to watch for early next week. Right now strong enough
winds look to keep this threat limited and likely closer to the
ground. Looks like the warmth will only continue throughout the
week, with highs remaining in the 40s to lower 50s through
Friday.

A series of waves on the edge of the ridge could affect the area
Monday night and again Tuesday night into the day on Wednesday.
Thermal profiles indicate that these waves could produce rain
across the area. NBM has chance pops (25-40%) for each of these
waves. Overall QPF appears to be light as these are mainly
clipper systems with limited draw of moisture from the Gulf.
Later in the week, we cool down and could see some rain snow mix
with the system into Friday. That said, still differences
between guidance means confidence in this potential system is
low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. High
level clouds will filter in tonight, which are evident on the
GOES-East Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery, but ceilings
should remain around 20 kft or perhaps as low as 15 kft at
times. Southwest winds will persist over the next 24 hours,
generally around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs/Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz