004
FXUS63 KDVN 071900
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
200 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warm up begins tomorrow. Summer-like temperatures will be
  back by the end of the week.

- There are no significant rain chances this week. Largely dry
  weather continues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

High pressure is nudging eastward across eastern Iowa at this
hour, shifting toward the Chicago area by this evening. The
result for us has been one more cool day, but that begins to
change tomorrow. As surface high pressure shifts east,
southerly flow commences on the back side. Meanwhile, ridging
aloft nudges eastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains in
response to a deep trough nudging inland from the West Coast.
The result for us is a warm up. After one more cool night
tonight with light winds and a clear sky, we`ll see temperatures
rise some 5 to 10 degrees above today`s levels, back into the
70s to near 80 degrees on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Our only real shot at rain this week comes with a shortwave
trough moving through the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. However,
moisture return is limited in advance of this wave. The only
significant moisture to speak of is flowing northward over the
western High Plains and will limit the rain potential with this
trough to areas to our west and north. The southerly flow in our
area isn`t a particularly moist flow, as the source of this air
will be recycled dry air from the cool surface high pushing east
into the northeast. This dry air means we`ll still see some
seasonably cool nights this week despite the warm up in
afternoon temperatures, and our rain chances just keep
decreasing. Latest ensemble guidance shows the greatest
potential for rain continues to shift west and north of our
area, and latest NBM has almost entirely kept mentionable PoP
out of our forecast area this week. Even if we do manage to get
a few scattered showers, they will be light and largely
inconsequential with regards to our developing surface dryness.

Tuesday`s trough pushes eastward through the Great Lakes into
the Northeast while upper ridging moves in sharply behind it
over the Upper Midwest. With the cool air mass tracking
eastward rather than southward and the ridge incoming, we`ll
just see daytime temperatures continue to warm through the week.
By late week it will feel more like summer, with even the
humidity gradually increasing as well. Latest probabilistic NBM
shows some probability for 90+ in our forecast area beginning
Thursday but peaking by Saturday at 40 to 50 percent. Even the
deterministic NBM now shows some 90 degrees late this week into
the weekend. So while this weekend was cool, and near record
lows, next weekend will be a return to summer warmth.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

Light winds today as high pressure slides through the region. A
few afternoon cumulus are expected, but will dissipate this
evening. Winds turn southerly by Monday morning as the high
shifts east, but they should remain fairly light.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Kimble
AVIATION...Kimble