491
FXUS63 KDVN 031122
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
622 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke will remain through at least Sunday, with near-surface
  smoke working in through the afternoon once again. Thus, some
  deterioration in air quality are possible.

- Temperatures will remain around 80, slowly increasing into the
  mid-upper 80s by midweek. We will remain largely dry though at
  least midweek, which would leave us with beautiful start to
  the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Weak flow aloft will remain through today and tonight, allowing for
calm weather to continue. Surface high pressure remains over the
Great Lakes Region, ushering llvl easterly flow into the area,
helping to keep us dry. While the flow aloft is weak, we will
continue to see some weak bouts of energy pass overhead,
allowing for some high clouds to remain through the day. We will
continue to see plenty of sun today though, filtered by high
clouds and smoke. This afternoon, HRRR/RAP guidance indicates
that the smoke will possibly reach the surface once again, which
may lead to deterioration of air quality. Aside from that, we
are looking towards a beautiful day, with temperatures in the
upper 70s to near 80. Tonight, we will continue to see some
passing clouds, with temperatures dropping into the mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 248 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

The upper level pattern remains quite messy through the week, with
weak flow to start, leading to multiple passing waves through the
remainder of the week. While we will see these waves pass through,
llvl flow remains easterly to southeasterly through the first half
of the week, leaving us largely dry. From there, we will start
to see winds shift southwesterly, introducing more moisture.
Although, the better moisture will remain west of our area,
which will limit our rain chances. With the increasing
southwesterly flow during the second half of the week, we will
start to see an increase in temperatures, bringing us back to
above normal temps. Humidity will also be on the rise as well,
with dewpoints in the 70s working their way back in.

Thus, we will start the week with temperatures in the low 80s,
trending to near 90 by the end of the week. Ensemble guidance
generally favors 90+ by the end of the week for at least areas south
of Interstate 80, with 50-70% favorability. Although, the EURO
Ensemble comes in rather aggressive with the heat, indicating
widespread 90s with 50%-70% chances. So, while the EURO comes in
much hotter than other guidance, all generally favor the heat to
work back in, especially with some approaching 90. With lacking
moisture, rainfall will remain limited, with current guidance
favoring storm chances returning next weekend. Although, with much
time between now and then, that is subject to change as well. As
was mentioned in the previous forecast package, we will be close
to the ridge-riding storm track. Thus, that may lead to some
forecast changes by the end of the week. Overall we are
expecting a beautiful week with passing clouds and normal
summertime heat/humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the TAF period,
with some brief MVFR vis reductions due to smoke. Visibility has
generally trended to 6+ SM since the smoke near the surface
largely dispersed, but increasing smoke concentrations this
afternoon may lead to further reductions. Will monitor and amend
as necessary. Otherwise, we will be left with light and
variable winds this morning, becoming southeasterly between 5-10
KTs. No sig wx is expected at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel