383
FXUS63 KDVN 070538
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1238 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Lower temperatures will remain through Labor Day as no
 impactful weather is expected.

-Heat and humidity will return later in the period. Although
 humidity levels will be lower than the last week, do still
 expect near heat advisory level heat indices.

-Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday into the morning
 on Wednesday with a threat of heavy rain as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Quiet short term period as easterly winds continue to keep the area
in cooler and slightly drier air than yesterday.  Stratus from the
cold advection has been slow to erode this morning keeping
temperatures in the 70s this morning. Aloft, a high amplitude
H5 ridge is forecast to remain across the area. The ridge axis
to our west means that we should continue to see the drier and
cooler air stay in place for Labor Day, While this is cooler
than last week, we continue to see highs that are 5 to 10
degrees above normal. However with dewpoints in the low 60s,
expect it to feel much more pleasant.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1220PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

H5 ridge begins to flatten as series of waves move north of the area
through the period.  The first wave is expected to drag a surface
boundary across the area Tuesday into Wednesday and bring with it
chances for precipitation.  Later in the period, zonal flow will
help to warm temperatures across the area.  Guidance begins to
differ in overall flow late in the period, however there are
indications of a deep trof forming across the western CONUS.  This
trof would lead to an increase in low-level moisture for area. We
will need to watch how this evolves for the rest of the week.

Looking to Tuesday into Wednesday, there is a level 1 of 5 severe
weather risk for mainly northern parts of the area as a wave drags a
front into our area.  Deep layer shear of 40 to 50kts is orientated
parallel to this boundary suggested more multicell storms.  With
limited SBCAPE and 0-3km CAPE, any severe weather would likely be
large hail.  What appears to be the main impact is heavy rain. With
E/W alignment of the front along with a H85 40 to 50 kt LLJ expect
plentiful moisture for heavy rain and the shear to keep organizing
updrafts leading storm longevity. Since crops are starting to dry,
we may see more water issues than anything.

Past Wednesday, flow aloft transitions to more zonal, returning us
to more seasonable temperatures for yet another brief reprieve.
However, increasing heat and humidity appear possible towards the
end of the week, continuing above normal temperatures through mid-
September.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. An area of high
clouds is currently dissipating over the terminals as a mid deck of
clouds at 10-15 kft move in from the west. With this
clearing and easterly flow from Lake Michigan, there is a limited
signal for fog developing east of the terminals. While temperature-
dewpoint differences at DBQ/MLI will remain large enough to keep
confidence low on the development of any MVFR or lower VSBYs,
reductions to 6SM have been included with this issuance. Winds
through the period will remain easterly to southeasterly.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Ellingworth