771
FXUS63 KDVN 242303
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
603 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather through the middle of next week with Fall-
  like temperatures and mainly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A pleasant early Fall weather day is found outside today, with
widespread cumulus again dotting the sky. Highs in the upper 60s
to lower 70s are on track, with dew point values in the lower
50s. Within the sensible weather, the gusty surface winds up to
30 mph are the only separating this from being a near "perfect"
outdoor day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

The next several days will offer very consistent conditions we`ve
seen since last night, with light winds and clear skies at night
resulting in chilly overnight lows from the mid 40s to low 50s, and
highs each day in the upper 60s to mid 70s. This looks to be in
place through Tuesday night. Winds Monday again look to gust
over 25 mph at times during the peak heating/mixing hours, but
Tuesday should be lighter regarding winds, as the surface high
pressure moves through.

Warming aloft is expected starting Wednesday, with highs climbing to
the upper 70s to lower 80s Wednesday through Friday.  There appears
to be a chance for more widespread cloud cover, or even some light
rain/weak storms Wednesday night, as a wave passes through the west
side of the upper trof over the Great Lakes. The GFS is by far the
most aggressive with this feature, but it`s worth adding some slight
(20%) pops to the north Wednesday night into Thursday. Still this
entire week continues to look dry with pleasant temperatures.
Behind the wave Thursday, temperatures look somewhat cooler into the
weekend for now with highs 75 to 80, and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 603 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

VFR conditions in the TAF period with high confidence. While
there could be patches of valley fog, some pressure gradient
will add a little wind, and in tandem with low dew points should
help thwart that threat at TAF sites. Monday afternoon is
likely to see sporadic gusts into the mid teens knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Changes...

A flood watch has been issued for the Wapsipinicon River near
De Witt. A flood warning has been issued for the Cedar River
near Conesville.

Discussion...

Tributary rivers in eastern Iowa have been rising in response
to heavy rainfall 7 to 10 days along the IA/MN border and
southern Minnesota. Crests are moving downstream on the Cedar,
Iowa and Wapsipinicon Rivers and should be through these river
basins by next weekend.

Routed flow is generally accounted for in all three basins but
there may be some unaccounted flow from non-measured streams.
Based on the overall flow data, the Wapsipinicon River near De
Witt will see a general rise over the next three days with a
possible crest around flood stage just before next weekend.

Forecasts for the Cedar River near Conesville have been trending
downward the past few days. However, the routed flow is
accounted for so the river should crest right around flood stage
on Tuesday.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Friedlein
HYDROLOGY...08