169
FXUS63 KDVN 270559
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1159 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery tonight!

- Thanksgiving forecast looks to be a quiet and cool day, with
  temperatures in the 30s and seasonal breeziness.

- Wintry weather is likely as we head into the weekend, as a
  seasonally strong storm system passes through the Midwest.
  Uncertainty remains on timing and overall impacts, but we
  continue to trend snowy.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The stratus in the northern counties has expanded and developed
farther south. This is as cyclonic flow continues around the
Great Lakes. Low temperatures are being adjust towards warmer
solutions, but blustery conditions are a guaranteed. Cloudy
skies may linger well into Thanksgiving day, but will pass that
trend onto the next forecast cycle.

At 6 PM, we expired our wind advisory that over performed at
times in the past 24 hours. Most sites remained in the 45 -56
mph range, but several places experienced 60+mph gusts. As of 7
PM, we`re seeing a few gusts around 40 mph, but most places are
seeing 25-35 mph gusts, certainly blustery, but well below
advisory criteria (45 mph).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

The windy conditions will continue into this evening and last
through the night. Although, through the night, we will start to see
the higher-end wind gusts go down. Winds will remain out of the
northwest tonight, with gusts largely between 20-30mph, but a few
higher gusts cannot be ruled out. These winds will combine with
temperatures in the low-mid 20s, making it quite unpleasant. Wind
chills will be dropping into the low-mid teens. Otherwise, we will
be dry though the night with mostly clear skies.

Thanksgiving will be a nice transitional day from one active stretch
of weather to the next, with high pressure passing through the
region. Thus, we will continue to see mostly clear skies throughout,
but seasonal breeziness and cool temperatures remain. So, while we
are looking at quiet weather, it will be a little cooler than
normal. Thus, a dry and breezy holiday is expected, with
temperatures in the mid 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday through the holiday weekend, we are in for quite the storm
system. Potent wave ejects off of the Rockies Friday night and heads
towards the Upper Midwest through Saturday. This will lead to
widespread wintry weather throughout parts of the region, where we
are looking at the potential, with 50-80% favorability, for several
inches of snow. Below, we will start to dive into more of the
details. Although, the bottom line up front is that it would be best
to start your holiday travel planning now, as widespread travel
impacts are likely for some Friday night through Saturday.

Over the last few days, we have been watching for trends in
guidance. The first trend is that we trended from more of a
rain/snow event to a mostly snow event. Along with this, the
probabilities for higher-end snowfall amounts have been trending
upwards as well over the last 24 hours. One thing to note here is
that some of these probabilities seem to be heavily influenced by
the Euro, which is the most aggressive when it comes to snowfall
amounts. This has influenced the NBM, which is also noting a steady
increasing trend in totals. Thus, our biggest forecast challenge
will be the overall snowfall totals. Fortunately, we are still a few
days out and have time to hone in on this. Although, we are not
completely sold on what the Euro guidance is showing, as it is
largely an outlier. The GFS/GEFS and the Canadian suite of guidance
are not as high with totals, but still bring impactful snowfall. Due
to this uncertainty, we are not ready to discuss potential ranges on
snowfall, as those ranges are still rather large. Rather, we will
dive into probabilities for certain amounts using ensemble and NBM
guidance. This will be discussed more below. At this time, we have
moderate-high confidence that snow will impact at least the northern
half of our area, with Interstate 80 being the rough center of our
forecast area. These areas should remain snow through the duration
of the event. For areas south of the interstate, we are still
expecting snow, but those areas will have the best chance to see
some rain mix in. This is another area of uncertainty, as there is
the chance that these locations stay all snow, but some guidance
does introduce rain. Thus, if rain is included, totals may be lower
in our south. Although, best chances for any rain mix-in still seem
to be along/south of Highway 34.

Now, going into the nature of the storm and possible amounts. This
will be a long duration snowfall event. Guidance is pretty well in
line on this system moving in Friday night, possibly before midnight
in our northwest, overspreading the area Saturday morning and
lasting into Saturday night. So, we are expecting a long duration of
light-moderate snow (lower rates) with some periods of heavy
snowfall as well. Although, we are not expecting this to be several
hours of heavy snow. So, there will be some decreased intensity in
the mix, which may allow for some clearing of roads and such. Now,
lets talk about potential snowfall amounts. As was mentioned, the
Euro continues to yield the highest totals, while the remainder of
guidance is running a little lower, albeit still impactful. The best
chances for higher snowfall will be along/north of the Interstate 80
corridor, where the probability for 4" of snow is 90-100% and
for 6" of snow or more being 75-90%. South of the interstate has
about a 60- 80% chance for 4"+, with 35-70% chance for 6"+.
Thus, these higher ranges in percentages indicate that there
remains uncertainty in these areas. One thing to keep in mind is
that these probabilities are pretty high already, indicating
that there will be a chance for higher- end totals. Although, we
are still a ways out from this storm and expect some
fluctuations. With these potential totals in mind, it will be
best to start holiday travel planning in advance, as travel may
become dangerous this weekend.

Sunday, we will largely be in the wake of this system, where we
should start to see most/all precipitation taper off through the
morning. From there, a northwest flow regime will set up, ushering
even colder air into the area. Thus, daytime temperatures might very
well be in the 20s early next week, with nights in the single
digits. This will allow any new snow from the weekend to stick
around a little bit. We are also seeing the potential for this
active pattern to continue. So, precipitation chances will also be
on the table next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Low clouds will continue over much of eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois through tonight leading to MVFR conditions, and have
low confidence on when the clouds will begin to break up.
Cyclonic flow aloft will result in periods of low clouds
(2500-5000 ft AGL) being possible through the day on Thursday.
Gusty NW winds will continue, mainly between 15 to 25 kts.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Uttech