104
FXUS63 KDVN 031045
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
545 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low-end chances for storms this afternoon and into the early
  evening, with an isolated severe threat. If we get storms to
  develop, the main hazard will be severe winds.

- Fourth of July is forecast to be quite toasty, with
  temperatures in the low-mid 90s and increasing humidity.

- Active pattern this weekend and beyond, as southwest flow
  kicks in, increasing temperatures and moisture. Thus, very
  warm conditions return, with increasing chances for
  showers/storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Upper ridge builds west of the area today, with amplifying upper
level northwesterly flow. This will guide a weak wave through the
area today. LLVL winds will generally be southwesterly, feeding more
moisture and warmer temperatures into the area. Thus, if convective
temperatures are reached today, we may see isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms develop as the wave passes through,
especially with LLVL lapse rates being between 9.0-9.5 C/Km. As has
been the case in previous forecast packages, this is not captured
well amongst guidance. Thus, it is probably safe to say that most
should remain dry today, as coverage of any storms that develop will
be low. Storms that do develop may become strong to severe, as
instability will be moderate, given strong surface heating, with
CAPE between 2500-3500+. This would allow any storm to go up rather
quickly, developing a quick/robust updraft, with LLVL dry air
favoring evaporative cooling and possible strong downburst winds.
Overall, the severe threat seems to be isolated. Thus, this is a low
confidence scenario, but cannot be ruled. The SPC continues to
highlight areas along and north of Interstate 80 in a Marginal Risk,
level 1 of 5, for severe weather, highlighting severe winds as the
main hazard and hail secondary.

The 4th of July continues to look like a warm one, with an upper
ridge passing over the area, allowing modest southwesterly flow to
kick in. Temps and moisture will continue to increase on Friday,
with temperatures reaching the low 90s and dewpoints increasing into
the low 70s throughout. Current forecast favors the potential for
heat indices upwards to 100 for some. With it being a holiday and
plenty of outdoor activities planned, it will be best to prepare for
the heat in advance, as well as practice heat safety during the day
as well. Otherwise, we look to remain dry for the holiday, with a
southerly breeze and mostly clear skies.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Friday night and beyond will feature an active weather pattern with
several waves passing through the region. Hot temperatures and
higher humidity through this period will favor near-daily chances
for storms. Saturday currently seems to be the day with the best
chance for showers/storms, as it features the deepest wave in the
period, passing through during the hottest part of the day. Too soon
to discuss any severe threat, but it is best to keep in mind that we
are now in July and with such heat and humidity, there will be a non-
zero threat for strong to severe convection. Beyond Saturday, the
near-daily chances for storms will largely be diurnally driven as
bouts of energy pass through. Saturday will be the warmest day of
this stretch, with low 90s remaining throughout, with mid-upper 80s
remaining for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Jul 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light
and variable winds becoming southwesterly between 5-10 KTs. We
may see some isolated-scattered storms today, but confidence in
coverage and timing is low, with <25% chance of them happening.
Thus, have opted to leave them out of the TAFs for now.
Otherwise, no sig wx is expected at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel