257
FXUS63 KDVN 031925
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke will continue aloft through Monday, but uncertainty on
  lower level smoke to advect back from the east across some
  areas and impact the surface with air quality issues.

- Gradual temp moderation through the 80s this week, and
  possibly some 90s by Thursday or Friday. There will be at
  least some low rain chances (20 percent) at times starting
  Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tonight...Western GRT LKS sfc high to hang on with it`s influence
back out acrs our area through Monday. East to southeasterly flow
from it acrs our fcst area of concern may try to advect some lower
level smoke from higher concentration source region acrs the GRT
LKS, but it may be more aloft and for now will hold off mention in
the grids, but sfc visibility trends will have to be watched
overnight. Will also not mention patchy fog tonight, as feel that
besides the river valleys, there may be less fog than what occurred
this morning. Will advertise lows in the mid to upper 50s.

Monday...More of the same with a mix of cellular CU and higher level
smoke filtering the insolation. There is an upper level wave
dropping acrs far east central MO into central IL, and this may be
enough to combine with some diurnal heating/adequate MLCAPEs to
produce isolated to sctrd showers and thunderstorms acrs southeast
into central IL. A low chance for some of this activity to get into
the far southeastern or eastern DVN CWA, and will place
unmentionable POPs in those areas. Fcst soundings have a capping EML
further to the northwest into eastern IA, so don`t expect much to
bubble up there. Most areas to have highs in the upper 70s to near
80. Fair Monday night with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Tuesday and Wednesday...The upstream thermal ridge looks to continue
to build to the lee of the Rockies, and weak upper troffing lingers
acrs the area. This may allow for an isolated pop-up shower or
thunderstorm to develop in the afternoon heating Tuesday, especially
in the southern CWA if sfc DPTs can maintain near 70. Continued with
slow day by day warm up with Wed highs making it into the mid 80s.
This as the western thermal ridge continues to enhance and expand
eastward toward our way. A few deterministic models want to produce
isolated pop-up storms again on Wed, but would think the H5 MB
height rises and lack of moisture feed may make the day largely dry
and not worthy for any type of precip mention at this point.

Thursday through Saturday...Continuing with the medium
range ensembles, they generally agree with the eastward migration
and establishment of the upstream thermal ridge acrs the plains to
the MS RVR Valley by late week. Besides allowing a new warming
regime back to the hot and more humid conditions Thursday into
Friday, we will again be close to the ridge-associated Ring of Fire
on it`s northern and northeast periphery this period. Thus at least
some low POPs may be warranted(especially north) as we potentially
have storm clusters or systems developing acrs the northern plains
and then propagate into or close to the DVN CWA mainly at night and
into the early morning periods. Mass field trends on the ensembles
suggest the brunt of the thermal ridge axis to amplify right acrs
the mid to upper MS RVR Valley on Sat, effectively shunting the
storm track well to the north. If that occurs, Sat may be a day with
a heat headline needed.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Haze and smoke VSBY restrictions have improved to VFR levels
area-wide, but some worry that the VSBY`s will come back down to
MVFR later tonight, with a combo of haze/fog/smoke being aided
by a LLVl east-southeast fetch back into higher sfc smoke
concentrations acrs the western GRT LKS. SCT to BKN coverage
cellular CU at VFR levels will dissipate toward sunset, but
look to form again from mid to late Monday morning. By the time
they get to BKN coverage they should lift to VFR levels again by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12