326
FXUS63 KDVN 221151
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
651 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An area of showers and a few thunderstorms this morning in our
  north.

- SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for all of the forecast
  area for the potential for large hail and strong gusty winds
  this afternoon and evening.

- Active and mild weather pattern on tap with precip chances
  almost every day until the weekend, and high temps in the 60s
  and 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Active pattern with zonal flow aloft and several short waves
moving through the flow. This will be combined with a quasi-
stationary frontal boundary in the area. CAM`s show several
rounds of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast area, one
this morning mainly north of I-80, then another round this
afternoon and a third this evening into tonight. In between
these rounds will be several hours of dry weather.

SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across all of our
area for this afternoon and evening. The main risks are frequent
lightning, large hail and strong gusty winds.

Highs today will range from the upper 60s north to the upper 70s
south. Lows tonight around 50 along Hwy 20 to the mid 50s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

Wednesday and Thursday...Continued pattern with the local area under
west-southwest steering flow around broad low amplitude southeastern
CONUS upper ridge. Vertical flow and shear profiles look weaker on
Wed, but with a ongoing quasi-stationary sfc front aligned with the
higher level flow and still trying to retreat north, will have to
keep POPs for more showers and thunderstorms. Current ensemble wave
timing has a ridge-riding vort max propagating acrs the area late Thu
night into Friday morning with a potential more organized storm
cluster development acrs the area at that time. Before the wave`s
arrival, a potential increased return flow ahead of it may warm
afternoon highs on Thursday into the upper 70s or near 80 in
some spots.

Friday, Saturday and Sunday...Depending on wave progression and
timing, showers and storms lingering out of Thu night may exit off
to the east by late Friday morning, but difficult to nail down this
type of detail with this pattern at this time. Whatever wave can
progress acrs and east of the region by late week, will open up the
area to both sfc and upper ridging for a dry but cooler Saturday
generally in the 60s. As we get on the other side of the
progressing ridge axis, elevated return flow may spawn more showers
and storms by Sunday night and Monday. Highs early next week
look to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Monday through Tuesday: Global models indicate a strong
synoptic storm system is expected to impact the area early next
week and the Storm Prediction Center already has portions of
eastern IA in a Slight Risk (15% probability) for severe storms.
All modes of severe weather is possible. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2025

An area of showers and a few thunderstorms will move across
locations mainly along and north of the I-80 corridor this
morning, then another round of showers and thunderstorms roughly
along and south of the I-80 corridor later this afternoon based
on model trends. Have a PROB30 at KMLI/KBRL but confidence is
low with regard to the placement/timing of additional convection
later today. MVFR conditions are possible with the stronger storms.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase