608
FXUS63 KDVN 181025
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
525 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very high fire danger today. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

- Continued dry with above normal temperatures through Monday.

- Chance (20-40%) for showers Monday night into Tuesday morning
  with any rainfall spotty and very light.

- Cooler /more seasonable/ mid to late next week.

- Once again back above normal on temperatures next weekend through
  the end of the month.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Southerly winds, occasionally gusty especially west of the Miss.
River aided by a 25-35 kt low level jet, are fostering a
milder start with temperatures mainly in the lower 40s to lower 50s
at 07z/ 2 AM. These readings are roughly around 10 to 15+ degrees
warmer from the same time yesterday.

We`ll remain in a lingering surface pressure gradient between high
pressure in the Ohio Valley and a frontal boundary draped from
NW Minnesota to W Nebraska. This will foster occasionally gusty
southerly winds today, which with the warm advection and full
sunshine will propel highs above normal and into the upper 60s and
lower 70s. The occasional gusty winds, dry/drought conditions, and
warm temperatures will also bring very high fire danger once again
today, although not nearly as critical it appears as yesterday as
relative humidities should be a skosh higher with some slight moisture
transport.

Tonight will be another quiet and cool night. It should be another
great evening for viewing the comet just after sunset, and for
Friday night lights...just be sure to take along a jacket!
Eventually lows in this dry airmass will settle back into the 30s
for some, with lower to mid 40s particularly across the north/west
service area being in closer proximity to a 30-35+ kt nocturnal
low level jet owing to occasional gusty winds and BL mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The warm and dry weather looks to continue into early next week.
We have a shot for highs in the 80s in a few locations on
Sunday and Monday (our last chance at 80s until Spring?) with an
anomalously warm 925 hPa thermal ridge (16c to 20c), and
negative feedback from the dry ground. Latest NBM probabilities
for temperatures >80F are 30-40% Sunday particularly west of the
Mississippi River, and drop to 10-20% areawide Monday most
likely due to potential for increase in cloud cover ahead of an
approaching upper disturbance and surface front.

Deterministic and ensembles generally agree on a filling upper level
closed low as it shifts from the central Rockies to the Midwest
Monday into Tuesday. The filling nature of the low /weakening lift
suggest rain chances should be low and any rainfall amounts meager.
Behind this system, an upper level trough is forecast to dig south
out of Canada and through the Great Lakes Tuesday night into
Wednesday. This will be accompanied by a cold front ushering in
cooler temperatures back down closer to seasonal normals for mid
into late week.

Long range ensembles support temperatures once again rebounding back
above normal over next weekend, and this agrees with the Climate
Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature outlook that has above normal
temperatures likely (60-70%) not only by next weekend but through
Halloween. Combine this with little or no rain the next 7+ days and
unfortunately we can look for the ongoing drought conditions to only
worsen.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024

VFR conditions (SKC) will persist through the period. Southerly
winds will gust at times 15-25 kt today diminishing with sunset.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure