614
FXUS63 KDVN 252327
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
527 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front is progged to pass through the area
  through the evening, with strong gradient winds expected on
  the backside. A Wind Advisory remains in effect into
  Wednesday.

- Thanksgiving forecast looks to be a quiet and cool day, with
  temperatures in the 30s and seasonal breeziness.

- Wintry weather is likely as we head into the weekend, as a
  seasonally strong storm system passes through the Midwest.
  Uncertainty remains on timing and overall impacts, but the
  trend continues to trend snowy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Relatively active forecast through this evening and into tomorrow. A
potent wave will continue to work into our area this evening and
through tonight, with an accompanying seasonally strong cold front.
As the cold front passes through this evening, we will see the
chance for light rain showers along the front, but overall
accumulations will be low/limited. The next chance for precipitation
will come along on the backside of the system, late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. With this round of precipitation, cold
temperatures will be in place, allowing for this to fall as light
snow. Temperatures will drop into the upper 20s to low 30 tonight,
behind the cold front. Cool grounds may allow for light accumulation
(generally <1") for those in our far north, generally along the
Highway 20 corridor. Confidence remains low on accumulation at this
time though.

Otherwise, our next weather concern revolves around the strong winds
that will result from this system. Tonight, we will see winds
quickly pick up along/behind frontal passage this evening. Winds
will gradually increase overnight, with strongest winds expected by
sunrise Wednesday, lasting through the morning. This is owing to a
strong pressure gradient induced over the area from the passing
wave. Strongest gradient winds will be seen over our northern half
of the area, where gusts upwards to 45-50 mph are expected. Some
areas may see locally higher gusts, with 55 mph not out of question
in our far north. Aside from the winds, tomorrow will feature a post-
frontal airmass. Windy conditions will persist through the day, with
temperatures in the 30s and clouds slowly decreasing from the south.
The combination of stronger winds and cold temperatures will make it
feel quite unpleasant out there. Thus, we may have wind chills in
the teens to low 20s for much of the day. Don`t forget your coat
tomorrow!

Wednesday night, we don`t quite lose the winds. Fortunately, they
will be lighter than seen earlier in the day, but gusts upwards to
20-25 mph will still be possible going into the night. Temperatures
will be in the low-mid 20s throughout as well, with mostly clear
skies. Thus, a brisk night is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Thanksgiving will be a nice transitional day from one active
stretch of weather to the next, with high pressure passing
through the region. Thus, we will continue to see mostly clear
skies throughout, but seasonal breeziness and cool temperatures
remain. So, while we are looking at quiet weather, it will be a
little cooler than normal. Thus, a dry and breezy holiday is
expected, with temperatures in the mid 30s.

Late on Friday and through the holiday weekend, we are in for an
active stretch of weather. As we have discussed over the last few
forecast packages, there is a system out there that we have our eyes
on. This system will likely bring the potential for widespread
wintry weather, which may result in impacts to post-holiday travel.
There remains some uncertainty still. Although, guidance continues
to trend on the colder side of things, which would favor the
potential for snow throughout the area. This is a new trend, only
becoming more snowy over the last 24 hours, but we continue to see
this trend continue in daytime updates. Thus, the cooler trend seems
to be the main scenario to mention at this time. Although, as was
mentioned, uncertainty exists. There is still plenty of time for the
track to change, which will impact timing and precipitation type.
So, we will have to continue to monitor. At this time, guidance does
seem to agree on a southerly track, bringing snow to much, if not
all, of the area. The best chance for rain to mix in is currently
favored south of Interstate 80, generally focused around the Highway
34 corridor. Rather than this being a quick-hitting system, this
does seem to be a longer duration event. Thus, this would seem to be
light-moderate snow over a span of hours, rather than a 6-hour
intense period of snow. This can also change as more guidance comes
in through the week, but figured this would give an idea for what we
may dealing with at this time, aiding in planning for travel.

As was mentioned, the NBM continues to favor accumulating slow, with
an 80%+ chance for at least 2" along/north of Interstate 80 over the
span of the weekend. South of the interstate has about a 30-50%
chance. These probabilities line up quite well with ensemble
guidance at this point. The potential (30-70% chance) does exist for
several inches of snow accumulation. So, it will be best to start
holiday travel planning in advance, in case travel becomes dangerous
this weekend.

Sunday, we will largely be in the wake of this system, where we
should start to see most/all precipitation taper off through the
morning. From there, a northwest flow regime will set up, ushering
even cooler air into the area. Thus, daytime temperatures might very
well be in the 20s early next week. This will allow any new snow
from the weekend to stick around a little bit. We are also seeing
the potential for this active pattern to continue. So, precipitation
chances will also be on the table for next week. Thus, buckle/bundle
up, as the quiet weather that we have largely had for a couple
months is coming to a close.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 518 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

A strong cold frontal passage is occurring at the top of the
hour, right at the onset of the 00z TAF cycle. With the the
front, DBQ, MLI, and BRL will be experiencing a IFR windy 30
minutes to 1 hour, with rain, drizzle, and brief, very gusty
winds up to 38kts from the west. This is a temporary condition,
and may be already over at 00z in some locations, but I`ve
included it in these sites since it may linger past 00z. After
that first, rather ugly hour, west winds of 15 to 25 kts are
expected with conditions potentially improving to VFR in the
wake of the front. CID is already seeing this on the horizon as
of 23Z. This VFR period is difficult to time in for any site,
but may last up to 3 hours, before a prolonged period of MVFR
conditions and high winds spread in, for the rest of period.
Wind gusts up to 40 kts are possible, but most hours we`ll be
looking at northwest winds of 20-25 kts, gusting to 35 to 38
kts.

Late in the period, some clearing may take place, but given low
confidence on timing that in, I`ve opted to leave the MVFR cigs
around 1500 ft going through the end of the period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
     IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 PM CST Wednesday for
     ILZ015-024>026-034-035.
     Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ001-002-
     007-009-016>018.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Ervin