566
FXUS63 KDVN 071110
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
510 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow is forecast to linger across the area through 6 AM
  before quickly coming to an end.

- An active weather pattern is forecast to continue through the
  upcoming week with several disturbances passing near the area
  bringing potential chances for precipitation.

- Another surge of arctic air will settle into the Midwest for
  the end of next week and weekend following the passage of the
  Thursday clipper system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

At 2 AM, the main surface low has shifted to our southeast with
winds becoming more northerly across eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois allowing precipitation to transition to widespread
snow especially south of Interstate 80 after a brief mixing
with sleet up to Interstate 80 overnight. Precipitation is
forecast to slowly move to the east this morning and exit the
area potential by 6 AM. For this reason, will leave the Winter
Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM.

Gusty north winds are forecast to continue into early this
afternoon with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. The snow appeared to
be wetter overnight which may limit the low level drifting that
will occur with these wind speeds. It will be cold today with
temperatures in the upper teens from Independence to Dubuque to
upper 20s south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.

Deep northwest flow aloft continues into the upcoming work week
and another weak shortwave is forecast to move across the area
Sunday night into Monday morning this will mainly bring an
increase in cloud cover across the area overnight. CAMs do show
diminishing snow spreading into parts of east central Iowa after
9 UTC (3 AM) Monday and added light snow and flurries west of a
Cedar Rapids to Manchester Iowa line. Accumulation is not
expected. It will be cold Monday morning with low temperatures
ranging from near 0 north of a Cedar Rapids to Freeport line to
the upper single digits above zero in far southeast Iowa, far
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois. Wind chill values
on Monday morning will be as cold as -10 north of Highway 30 or
north of Cedar Rapids to Clinton to Sterling Rock Falls line.

High presssure is forecast to quickly build into the area on
Monday and bring quiet weather to the area. However skies will
remain cloudy through the day. High temperatures on Monday will
be in the mid to upper 20s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 218 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday night/Tuesday
Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence of a clipper
system side-swiping parts of the area.

The next clipper system races through the Midwest and Great Lakes
Monday night and Tuesday morning. The better forcing and moisture is
well north of the area. Thus right now it appears that areas east of
a Manchester, IA to Princeton, IL line will get a period of flurries
or at worst several hours of light snow. The model consensus
currently has 20-25% pops for the area. If the light snow scenario
would occur, accumulations would be a dusting at worst.

Tuesday night through Thursday
Assessment...medium (40-60%) confidence of two additional systems.
Low (20-30%) confidence regarding precipitation type for the first
system.

Another clipper system moves through the Midwest Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Like the previous system the models project the track to
be north of the area. However, the track is further south than the
previous system.

Such a track would put the area initially on the warm side of the
system until the low passes. Being on the warm side of the system
raises questions regarding precipitation type. Thermal profiles of
the atmosphere suggest the precipitation may initially develop as
rain or possibly a rain/snow mix. If the precipitation arrives
shortly after sunset (suggested by all models), then rain would be
the primary precipitation type until the atmosphere cools and allows
a rain/snow mix to develop later in the evening and much of the
overnight hours.

Once the low passes, cold advection will quickly change any mix over
to all snow late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning but
accumulations right now look to be a dusting at best. The cold
advection looks impressive with winds of 15-25 mph expected and
potential gusts of 30-35 mph. The diurnal recovery of temperatures
on Wednesday will be minimal from the overnight lows.

Following almost immediately on the heels of the second clipper
system will be a hybrid clipper/colorado low system that arrives
Wednesday night into Thursday. The more southern track of this
system means there is a high (>80%) probability of seeing another
round of accumulating snow.

Given the proximity of this system with the previous clipper system,
there will not be much moisture in place ahead of the system. Thus
the moisture associated with the system will be what is available
for precipitation production.

While there are timing differences, there is loose agreement that
the precipitation will be arriving after sunset. Thus with the
atmosphere cooling, the precipitation type will be in the form of
snow.

While not certain, this snow will have a medium to high (60-80%)
probability of being the dry, fluffy type. Thus the rain/snow ratio
will be minimally in the 12-15 to 1 range. Given the limited system
moisture, snowfall amounts generally look to be light.

Thursday night through Saturday
Assessment...A certainty (>98%) of another round of arctic air
for the Midwest

Lingering light snow/flurries will end Thursday evening as the
system departs the area. Behind the system, another surge of arctic
air will move into the Midwest keeping temperatures well below
normal for the end of the week and next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 459 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tonights storm system is exiting to the east with TAF sites
varying between VFR and IFR conditions early this morning.
Rapid improvement to VFR conditions is expected at TAF sits
through 15 UTC with improvement not expected at KBRL until 18
UTC. Gusty north winds with gusts up to 20 knots will continue
into the early afternoon before slowly diminishing. Another
storm system is forecast to move across the area after 00 UTC on
Monday and bringing in lowering ceilings after 06 UTC.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     IAZ042-065-067-068-078.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     IAZ053-054-066.
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     ILZ001-002-015>018-024>026-034-035.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST early this morning for
     ILZ007-009.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Cousins