335
FXUS63 KDVN 021950
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
150 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quick-hitting system to bring a brief shot of flurries and/or
  light snow Wednesday. Little/no accumulation is expected.

- Surface high pressure moves in behind the midweek system,
  bringing the coldest temperatures yet this year. Nights in
  single digits to negatives expected for the second half of the
  week!

- The weekend and beyond look to remain active, with sporadic
  chances for precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

We continue to see the deck of low stratus move out of the area,
providing full sun for some this afternoon. Although, we have a
system approaching from the northwest that will bring in mid-high
clouds this afternoon and evening, blanketing us in clouds again
overnight. Thus, temperatures are not expected to drop off too much,
with most hovering in the low 20s. Those that see clear skies after
sunset will have the best chance to drop into the teens, which
currently seems favored east of the Mississippi River. Otherwise, it
will be a quiet night ahead of this system, with dry conditions and
a southerly breeze.

Tomorrow, we will have the weak wave pass through the area, dragging
a cold front from northwest-southeast by noon. Thus, weak warm
advection ahead of the front will likely bring our high temperatures
in before noon, with cold advection kicking in for the afternoon,
allowing for temperatures to slowly decrease through the remainder
of the day. Along this cold front, we will see the potential for
precipitation in the form of light snow or flurries. Confidence is
relatively low, as it would seem we are struggling with moisture.
Best moisture will be right along the front, where we continue to
hold Slight-Chance PoPs. Where we see light snow, little/no
accumulation is expected, with <0.5" of snow forecasted. Thus, we
are not expecting many impacts from this. Rather, a quick dusting
for those that see snow. This will move through quickly, with
cold/dry advection kicking in on the backside, allowing temperatures
to cool and winds to increase out of the northwest. Wind chills will
be in the teens to single digits by the evening commute for
many.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface high pressure moves in Wednesday night and through the end
of the week, bringing a period of lighter winds, quieter weather,
but very cold temperatures. We will see the coldest readings of the
season, with widespread single digits to negatives both Wednesday
and Thursday night. This is unseasonably cold air, with normal low
temperatures in the low 20s to upper teens. Wednesday night will be
the coldest night, with the best chance for below zero low
temperatures. With high pressure overhead on Thursday, we will see
light winds, clear skies and very cold temperatures. Highs Thursday
will remain in the low-mid teens as well, as we won`t see much of an
airmass change through the day. Fortunately, these very cold
temperatures will be short-lived, as winds shift southerly Thursday
night into Friday, keeping temperatures from dropping into the
negatives. Although, we will continue to see single digit
temperatures.

Friday and beyond, guidance seems to favor an active stretch of
weather. The first bout of weather may move through this weekend, as
we see a weak wave pass nearby. While deterministic members are
quite dispersed for the track of this weak system, the ensemble
members bring through widespread light precipitation Saturday night
into Sunday. Looking at model soundings, temperatures profiles would
favor the primary precipitation type as snow. Given such
uncertainty, will refrain from more details. Behind this system, we
will have another surface high pressure bring through unseasonably
cold air again. Thus, we might see single digit overnight lows move
into the area Sunday night into Monday. Going into next week, we
will remain active, with guidance favoring the chance for more quick-
hitting clippers. Thus, precipitation chances will remain on the
table next week, but confidence on details remains low. Continue to
monitor our forecast for any updates and trends with these passing
systems.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A deck of low stratus continues to slowly move out of the area,
with impacts largely remaining at MLI/DBQ. Within the next
hour, we will see this deck scatter out at CID/BRL. Those under
the clouds will continue to see cigs around 1000-1500 ft until
mid-afternoon, with a few areas still seeing <1000 ft cigs.
Otherwise, we will have a period of mostly clear skies prior to
this evening, when mid-high clouds move in. Winds will remain
out of the south-southwest around 10 KTs until a cold front
works through the area tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1152 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Record Cold High Temperatures:

December 4:
KMLI: 14 in 1991

Record Low Temperatures:

December 4:
KBRL: -3 in 1991
KCID: -5 in 2005
KDBQ: -6 in 1991
KMLI: -2 in 1991

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Gunkel
CLIMATE...Gross