813
FXUS63 KDVN 072343
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
643 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across
  the area late this afternoon into the early evening. There is
  a higher chance for showers and storms on Sunday.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather continues
  south and east of a Fairfield to Aledo to Galesburg line,
  with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for east of a Fairfield to
  Cedar Rapids to Dubuque line. The main hazards are damaging
  winds and large hail.

- Seasonal temperatures will continue before warming up by mid-
  week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A shortwave trough and convectively induced vort max are moving
across southern Iowa northern Missouri this afternoon and into
this evening. Despite returns on radar, the subcloud layer has
been slow to saturate across the state with sprinkles and
drizzle occurring before the rain. Think that more widespread
rain showers will slowly move across the area along and south of
Interstate 80 with more isolated showers to the north. CAMs
show less than 500 J/KG of CAPE across the area late this
afternoon and into the early evening with mid level lapse rates
around 5.5*C/km cross the area. Think that any thunderstorms
will be isolated into the early evening. Most locations are
forecast to see a tenth of an inch or less into this evening.

Skies will clear and any precipitation will come to an end by 10 PM
with a brief period of shortwave ridging ahead of another
trough digging into the region. The closed upper level low
associated with this trough is forecast to move into northern
Minnesota by 00 UTC on Monday. This storm system will drive a
cold front across the area on Sunday. The front is forecast to
approaching the Mississippi River by 18 UTC. Models are showing
a narrow ribbon of higher dewpoints and CAPE values along and
ahead of the front late morning through 21 UTC in far southeast
Iowa and west central Illinois. 0 to 6 km shear increases to 35
knots as a strong jet streak moves into the base of the
trough over Iowa. Peak heating and best lift will combine show
a window for stronger storms mainly south of I-80 between 17 to
21 UTC during the afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Marginal Risk of severe storms east of a Sigourney to Cedar
Rapids to Dubuque Iowa and a Slight Risk of severe storms along
and south of a line from Fairfield To Aledo to Galesburg Line.
Think that hail around 1 inch and damaging winds will be the
main threat. The threat will come to an end as the front moves
across the area. The latest CAM runs also have a second area of
mainly showers moving across the area behind the front Sunday
afternoon.

In addition to the storms on Sunday, southerly winds will increase
on Sunday to 10 to 20 MPH with a few gusts up to 25 knots especially
west of a Interstate 380 and continue to as they shift to the
northwest behind the front. High temperatures on Sunday will
range from the mid 70s along the Highway 20 corridor to the
upper 70s to near 80 along and south of Highway 20.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

A closed 500 mb low is forecast to move from northern Minnesota into
southwestern Ontario through 12 UTC on Tuesday. This will bring
another round of showers and storms to the area north of
Interstate 80 through the day on Monday. Temperatures on Monday
will be cooler and range from the lower 70s along the Highway
20 corridor to the mid 70s along and south of Interstate 80.

High pressure is forecast to build into the area at the surface
and aloft on Tuesday and Wednesday with quiet weather. It will
be noticeably warmer by Wednesday with high temperatures in the
mid 80s as high pressure moves to the east of us and dewpoints
climbing into the lower to mid 60s.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Wednesday with
zonal flow across the CONUS. There are a series of shortwave
troughs and ridges that will move across the Upper Midwest
through the end of the period. This will bring chances of
showers and storms to the area each day but the timing of those
chances will likely change as we get closer. There will likley
be several dry hours each day. Temperatures will be in the 80s
Thursday through Friday with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Will continue with some shower chances through sunset for parts
of the area. Otherwise, predominantly VFR conditions with some
light haze/smoke possibly reducing visibilities 4-6sm tonight.
After 07z through 12z patchy fog is possible, with some patchy
dense possible in areas that received heavier rainfall today.
Have gone with prevailing MVFR visibilities at the terminals,
but will have to watch BRL and possibly MLI for lower visibility
and possibly lower stratus though confidence is too low with
uncertainty due to mid/high cloudiness around. Sunday, a front
will push through the terminals between 15z-19z accompanied by a
few hour period potential for showers along and post-frontal.
BRL has the best chance for TSRA and brief MVFR conditions
(mainly visibility) with the later frontal timing allowing more
instability. Winds will turn gusty from the NW at 10-20+ kt with
the passage of the cool front.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...McClure