402
FXUS63 KDVN 112337
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
537 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather will remain through the end of the week, with a
  pattern change this weekend bringing a more active pattern
  into the next work week.

- Temperatures continue to trend upwards through midweek, with
  most in the 50s/60s by the end of the week. Some may even
  reach the low 70s this weekend!

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Weak upper shortwave currently passing through the area will
continue to bring gusty winds through the afternoon and into the
evening. Although, winds will be much lighter this evening as the
system moves out and the pressure gradient decreases. Tonight, we
will be on the backside of the system, leaving us with clearing
skies. Thus, we should see temperatures drop off pretty quickly this
evening and steadying out, with dewpoints in the low 30s and
persistent breeze keeping temperatures in the low-mid 30s. As
was mentioned prior, we might be able to see some areas drop
into the upper 20s if lower dewpoints work in. This will largely
be in low-lying areas/valleys.

Tomorrow, we continue to fall under northwesterly upper level flow,
with upper ridging over the Rockies helping to push the longwave
trough easterly. Thus, the upper jet core and bouts of energy
passing through it will remain east of the area. LLVL winds
will remain breezy and northwesterly. Thus, we are not expecting
a stark warmup tomorrow, but can see about a 5 degree increase
from today. This will bring temperatures closer to seasonal
norms (a little above for some), where most should see the 50s
tomorrow, with upper 50s possible in our far south. With some
breezy winds aloft, we should mix down some gusty winds once
again. Although, the gusts will be lighter than previous days,
with us largely looking at gusts around 20-25 mph, especially in
our north. Otherwise, we should have a beautiful fall day
throughout the area, with some passing clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

An amplifying west coast ridge will gradually shift eastward into
the Mid-Mississippi Valley by 12z Saturday. This will support dry
weather with a marked warming trend. In fact, temperatures could be
near record for highs Friday (south) into Saturday (areawide) with
850 hPa temperature anomalies of +10C to +15C Friday into Saturday,
or +1 to +2SD per NAEFS and ECMWF EFIs of 0.5 to 0.8 with little/no
SoT (Shift of Tails) supportive of the anomalous warmth. The median
of the NBM, or 50th percentile for highs, is in the 60s/near 70
Friday and mid 60s to lower 70s Saturday. Record highs are generally
around 70 to 75. One thing to note that while the NBM is coming in
with temperatures in the 70s this weekend, our confidence in how
high the temperatures will be is low, especially on Saturday. More
will be described below with the overall pattern, but it is just
important to keep in mind that it is possible that high temperatures
this weekend may be a few degrees cooler than currently advertised.

As we head into the weekend, we have been messaging the potential
for two scenarios. One scenario would be more active over our area
through the weekend, while the other would keep us largely dry and
warmer. Latest runs of global models and associated ensembles
continue to trend on the dryer side of things, which was described
well in our last forecast package. This dryer pattern for us would
support a progressive cold frontal passage over the weekend with
more limited moisture and low precipitation chances, followed
by a cool down toward more seasonable levels for late weekend
into next week. Then, the southern stream energy would
eventually lift out of the Rockies and move across the central
CONUS early next week with uncertainties on
strength/timing/track per WPC Clusters. This would bring
precipitation chances to our area, but later in the forecast
period, rather than the weekend. NBM seems to have fallen in
line with such trend and hold much of the PoPs off until Sunday
night and Monday. Any PoPs prior are <20%. Thus, we are trending
towards an unseasonably mild weekend and seasonable breeziness.


The next forecast challenge will be high temperatures this weekend,
owing to this more benign pattern this weekend. While we will
continue to see warm advection through the end of the week,
increasing temperatures, we might not see advection as strong as
initially thought. With weaker advection, it might be harder to get
the more widespread mid 70s on Saturday. Our best chance to see 70s
will be in our south, but without that additional push of warmth
ahead of a wave, it may be hard to reach near record temperatures.
Thus, keep in mind that we will be above seasonal norms this
weekend, but might be a little lower than currently advertised. This
is supported well amongst guidance, with the NBM coming in at the
90th percentile for MaxT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. The main
focus remains on winds as we will have persistent westerly flow
tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Gusts between 20 to 25
knots are expected during the daylight hours Wednesday.
Overnight, some models are hinting at a period of marginal low-
level wind shear tonight, as northwesterly flow remains strong
aloft (35-45 knots). However, due to the weak, marginal nature
of the LLWS, we`ve kept it out of the TAFs for now. DBQ appears
most likely to be the area to see any LLWS, if it develops at
all.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gunkel
LONG TERM...Gunkel/McClure
AVIATION...Schultz