471
FXUS63 KDVN 031046
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
546 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather will continue into the weekend with chances of
  rain Thursday night through Friday night.

- Temperatures are near to slightly below normal through next
  Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025


At 500 MB, ridging sits off the East Coast with a deep large
scale trough across the western US. This places much of the
Plains under depth southwesterly flow aloft. As the closed 500
MB low from Wednesday continues to move into Ontario, ridging
aloft and surface high pressure will build into the region for
the day on Thursday. Skies will be clear to start the day but
clouds are forecast to spread into the area during the afternoon
ahead of a disturbance that will move across the area tonight.
It will remain breezy through the morning before winds diminish
through the afternoon. High temperatures today are forecast to
range form the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

Tonight, a weak disturbance passing to our south will bring a low
(20 to 30%) chance of rain showers to the area tonight along and
south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line. A few hundredths of an inch
of rain are possible. Low temperatures Thursday night are
forecast to range from the mid 30s along the Highway 20 corridor
where cloud cover may clear for a few hours to the mid 40s
south of a Fairfield to Galesburg line.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Friday through Sunday: A deep trough in the Plains will remain
to our west, with southwest flow and deep moisture from the
lower MS Valley to the Ohio Valley. This is where tremendous
rains and severe weather are forecast into the upcoming weekend.
A wave moving through the southwesterly flow is forecast to
spread moisture and rain into our forecast area mainly Friday
and Friday night. There may be a sharp cutoff of rain north of
Highway 30. Precipitation may linger south of a Fairfield to
Galesburg line through Saturday. Areas in far southeast Iowa,
northeast Missouri and west central Illinois may also have
thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Severe storms are
not expected at this time given the thermodynamic environment.
Rainfall amounts between a a tenth and a half an inch are
possible. Near normal temperatures for early April are expected
with highs in the 50s Friday through Sunday.

The persistent Plains trough begins to shift eastward late
Sunday into early next week but troughing remains in place
through the remainder of the period. Global models are similar
in diving a vigorous trough into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes
with a band of snow showers pushing into northwest Illinois on
Monday, mainly north of Interstate 80. The GFS is much more
aggressive with these snow showers than the ECMWF. It will be colder
with lows in the mid 20s to lower 30s and highs in the 40s on
Monday.

Tuesday through Wednesday: Should be dry with temperatures
rebounding into the lower 50s on Tuesday, then into the 60s on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the period with high
pressure moving across the area. Gusty winds will continue
through 18 UTC at KDBQ, KCID, and KMLI. Gusts up to 30 knots
are possible at KDBQ but up to 20 knots at KCID and KMLI. Winds
will become light and variable after 00 UTC.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Cousins
AVIATION...Cousins