518
FXUS63 KDVN 232349
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
549 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Highs Sunday 8 to 13 degrees above normal. Near normal Monday,
  then below normal into late week.

- One or more systems will be moving through the Midwest during
  the holiday period (mid week into next weekend). Considerable
  uncertainty exists regarding the track and potential for any
  impacts to the area.

- The pattern change that occurred last week will remain active
  through early December. Temperatures will likely (70-90%) be
  below normal into early December. There is no clear signal
  that favors above, below, or near normal precipitation, which
  would more likely be snow with colder temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Tonight, light southeast winds and high level clouds will be
seen as high pressure drifts east and a low pressure system
approaches from the central plains. Some fog is possible along
highway 20 mainly mid to late evening into the overnight but
confidence is low with light southeast winds increasing enough.
Opted not to include in grids. Lows will be nearly steady in
the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday, the plains low will track over the area. This will usher
in seasonable mild temperatures into the area on southwest
winds. The gustier winds will be across the southern CWA late
morning and early afternoon. As the warm front lifts through,
can`t rule out some sprinkles early and then light rain/drizzle.
Added some low POPS for light rain generally along and east of
the MS River for after sunset into early Monday. Only expect a
trace to a few hundredths at best of rain. Highs Sunday were
nudged down a bit, but still look on track to be in the upper
40s to near 50 north, to the upper 50s to near 60 south. Normals
are in the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Monday and Tuesday, a high pressure ridge will traverse the area
with mainly dry conditions. A cold front will be east of the
area early Monday with brisk NW winds increasing through the day
while ushering in much colder air. Temperatures won`t see much
improvement on Monday, with steady or slowly falling
readings in the mid 30s NW to low to mid 40s along and E of the
river. Some lingering slight chances for light rain are in the
NE Monday morning, and east for the afternoon.

Tuesday looks to be quiet and chilly with below normal highs
mostly in the 30s, as surface to mid level ridging dominates.
Winds will be light west northwest with sunshine giving way to
some increase in clouds.

The Thanksgiving Holiday time frame remains a focus and
potential time for precipitation, but there is still a lot of
uncertainty. Through collaboration, bumped up POPS for
Wednesday into Thanksgiving as some models hint at an fgen band
initially Tuesday night into Wednesday across the north. Then,
with a southern system tracking across MO which brings in
precip chances across the SE two thirds of the CWA. With
placement and timing differences, the end POPS are just slight
to low chance (20-30%) with diurnally-driven precip types, snow
versus rain. At this time, WPC has QPF focused south of the
area, with the CWA remaining dry. Will need to monitor this due
to the travel day and expect changes as we get closer.

Beyond, confidence remains high on turning much colder and well
below normal at the end of November and beginning of December.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 549 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions start off the TAF period, with BKN high cirrus
clouds overhead. The main focus for tonight continues to be on
fog potential for areas north of Highway 30, including the DBQ
TAF terminal. Latest models suggest a little later time frame
for fog development than previously expected, with the
possibility of some IFR visby reductions late tonight, so have
made adjustments to capture this. Additionally, strengthening
low-level flow aloft will support low-level wind shear at BRL,
which is indicated by both the NAM and RAP models. Otherwise,
expect southeasterly flow during the daylight hours Sunday,
with continued VFR clouds.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Schultz