924
FXUS63 KDVN 032320
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
520 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

...Updated for 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Risk for a wintry mix Sunday remains under 15%.

- Above normal temperatures likely for much of next week, with
  highs in the 50s.

- Active/wet period to develop late next week, with a possible
  pattern change after that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

With what seems like a broken record we have yet another cloudy
day with a upper level clipper moving north and east of the
area. At the surface, high pressure kept drier air in place.
This meant no precip was reported in the area today. As the wave
moves off to the east, a weaker wave will move across Iowa this
evening, re-inforcing the clouds that are in place. These clouds
will remain in place, especially across Iowa tonight.

Tomorrow, upper level ridging builds into the area as another
wave moves just north of the area. The main slug of moisture
with this wave moves through the area later in the period and
into Sunday afternoon and evening. As with the system today, dry
low levels will limit any precip potential. CAMs keep all of the
model reflectivity north of the area, supporting the spectral
model output of drier low levels. Low-level RH increases into
Sunday evening, but this is on the back on of the forcing.
Overall, keeping sub 15% pops for this. If it were to occur we
could see some freezing drizzle or rain, but with low RH, think
this would be isolated in nature and thus not that impactful.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Overall zonal flow is expected through much of the beginning of
next week. There are waves that move through this flow, leading
to short bouts of ridging and southwest flow. There are also a
series of waves that move through this flow. Most of them appear
to be dry as they move through, suggesting more clouds and
possibly some wind as well through at least midweek.

At the same time, temperatures will moderate and we see H85
temps reaching 10C by 18z Monday which will be near the daily
max for the day per SPC climatology. NBM probabilities for high
temperatures greater than 45 degrees are now in the 50-100%
range along and south of Hwy 30 Monday through Thursday! While
not quite record high territory yet (low-mid 50s are records at
CID/DBQ), any more warming in future forecasts with no snow on
the ground will get us closer. As usual with this time of year,
clouds will throw a wrench in the temperature forecast as well.

Later in the week, guidance is consistent with a stronger system
to end the week. The western US trof starts to dig south,
turning the flow SW. A leading wave is expected to move through
the flow before an even stronger system moves into from the four
corners region to the area to end the week. This could lead to
cyclogenesis just to the south and east of the area. Regardless
of what happens, we do look to see a decent chance for precip
returning to the area. We will need to keep an eye on this
system to see if guidance comes into better agreement as any
shift in the route could lead to more/less rain and even some
rumbles of thunder.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected during the TAF cycle. MVFR should
be largely dominant with some VFR periods possible especially later
this evening and overnight, and again developing Sunday afternoon
into evening from south to north with a lifting warm front.
There is also a very low chance (20%) for a period of IFR ceilings
on Sunday at KCID and KDBQ. Winds will be from the N/NW at less
than 10 kt this evening before shifting to light E/SE Sunday morning.
Then, with the passing warm front Sunday afternoon winds are expected
to turn gusty from the S/SW at 10-20+ kt.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...McClure