515
FXUS63 KDVN 242309
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
609 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of a low risk of rain around Wednesday, mainly dry
  with near normal temperatures for the work week.

- De-amplification of the flow pattern aloft by the weekend
  raises the prospects of more systems potentially moving
  through the area. Rain is possible for part of the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

The weak upper level disturbance that produced some rain from
central into southeast Iowa will exit the area by sunset. The
overnight hours will be quiet as southerly flow develops ahead of an
approaching system.

On Tuesday another weak disturbance will move through the area. The
current suite of models have dry conditions which will likely be
correct for 90-95% of the area. However, I would not be surprised if
it generates some isolated showers or sprinkles.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Tuesday night through Friday night
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of near normal temperatures

Low level flow will become more southerly during the week which will
slowly raise humidity levels.

A weak system is progged to move through the area late Tuesday night
into Wednesday but the moisture is lacking. The trend with rain
chances has been a slow decrease and I would not be surprised to see
an additional 5-10% decrease from the current 20-30% chance. The
relatively `better` forcing is north of I-80 which is closer to the
low track.

Saturday through Monday
Assessment...low (20-30%) chances for any rain

By the weekend de-amplification of the flow pattern aloft will occur
across the CONUS. During this change a flat ridge will be centered
from the southern Plains into the upper Midwest. Thus while more
systems will potentially be moving through the area, they will be
topping the ridge axis and would thus be at their weakest.

Any Gulf moisture for the systems has to come up through west Texas
before turning northeast into the Plains.

Right now the model consensus has mainly 15-30% chances for rain
Saturday through Monday with the better rain chances north of I-80.
In looking at the AIGFS and AIFS, rain chances are not as good which
would support a further reduction in rain chances as the week
progresses.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Winds will be 5 knots or less through sunrise. Variable winds
are expected at times. However, wind direction should favor a
southeast to east direction through sunrise. After 14z/25 winds
will become more southerly at 5-10 knots ahead of the next storm
system.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08