969
FXUS63 KDVN 041034
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
534 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain will overspread the area today with most areas seeing
  between 0.10 to 0.25 inches of QPF.

- Cooler Frost/Freeze headlines may be needed Saturday and
  Monday nights, especially in places where the growing season
  has begun.

- Another couple of chances (20-40%) of rain through the week.
  However, QPF looks to be light as a more continental airmass
  is expected to be in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Complex upper level flow regime with a longwave trof located
over the SW US as a series of shortwaves move through the flow
into the area. At the same time, another stronger wave digs SE
into the northern Great Lakes region tonight. This wave will
help to advect more moisture into our area from the south. Later
today, a cold front associated with the wave north of the area
will move through the area and push the better forcing and
moisture convergence south of us into tomorrow morning.

Moisture return is the main story of this system. While the
wave to the north will attempt to advect better deep layer
moisture into the area, saturation will be slow to occur. Am
concerned that the guidance may be a little more aggressive with
moisture return into our area. Strong to severe convection well
south of us will block good moisture return. So overall
uncertain with how far north the QPF gets. That all said,
overall QPF looks to be light and no real impacts are expected
with the exception of greening lawns from beneficial rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Overall an active pattern is expected to continue across the
CONUS. This weekend, high pressure will build into the area from
the north. Lows Saturday night and again Monday night will be
close to below freezing. We will check with our agriculture
partners to determine if the growing season has begun. If it
has, then we will likely need freeze warnings Monday night.
Locally in the QC, hardware stores don`t have a lot of plants
outside yet, so think we may still be ahead of the growing
season. So overall, this weekend into next week will be chilly,
with highs in the 40s on Monday, which is below normal.

Zonal flow aloft returns to the area on Tuesday, bringing in
warmer temperatures. Ridging starts to build across the central
Plains by midweek, bringing us to NW flow. Clippers in this flow
will bring chances for precip to the area. This NW flow will
continue through the week keeping the better Gulf moisture from
reaching the area. This means precip chances next week don`t
have much QPF associated with it. Ensemble means see us getting
an additional tenth of an inch of rain by the end of the next
work week. For early April, not too much impactful weather is
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Cigs will be begin to slowly lower today. Light off and on rain
is expected at all TAF sites with MLI and BRL in the better
moisture. DBQ might remain dry.  Eventually MVFR cigs are
expected later today into the overnight. Some IFR is possible at
BRL late in the period but have left out at the current time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Gibbs