347
FXUS63 KDVN 021029
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
529 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue hazy skies through
  the weekend, with an Air Quality Alert remaining in effect for
  Iowa through tonight.

- Gradual moderation through the 80s next week, with a few low
  rain chances (20 percent).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Quiet and comfortable conditions will continue through the weekend,
as high pressure over the western Great Lakes and dry, light
easterly low level flow persist. Attendant subsidence will
continue to foster the potential for some wildfire smoke to
make it to the surface at times, owing to visibility restrictions
3-6SM and also impacts to air quality. In fact, an Air Quality
Alert remains in effect for all of Iowa through 8 AM Sunday.
However, some degradation in air quality is likely to impact all
areas not just Iowa, and as such it is recommended to take it
easy outdoors and avoid long or intense activities and take
frequent breaks until the wildfire smoke disperses and air quality
improves, which may not be until late in the weekend or early next
week.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

A slow eastward progression of the high will foster a continuation
of largely dry weather with a gradual moderation on temperatures
into mid-week. A upper ridge will amplify over the southwest U.S.
near the Four Corners region mid to late week, with very anomalous
500 hPa heights of around 600 dam! As the ridge amplifies
the 1000-500 hpa thicknesses will climb over the region supporting
additional warming at or above normal over the second half of
the week into next weekend with NBM showing highs reaching the
upper 80s and lower 90s. Dew points will also be climbing and
leading to more typical summertime humidity. We`ll also see
periodic storm chances at times mid to late week, as guidance
suggests the potential for several disturbances to track along
the northern periphery of the amplifying upper ridge across
the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. PoPs are quite low (20%)
at this time, as there remains large uncertainty on
timing/strength/track of the shortwaves, but the ingredients appear
favorable for some potential of organized convection in or near
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Periodic MVFR to lower VFR visibility reductions (4-6SM) in smoke/haze
due to wildfire smoke is expected to persist through the TAF cycle.
In addition, some patchy shallow fog with variable visibilities
from VLIFR to MVFR is possible near KDBQ at the start of the TAF
period and may redevelop again late tonight at all sites after 08z
given light winds and small dewpoint depressions. Aside from the
visibility concerns, clouds and any ceilings will remain VFR throughout.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure