635
FXUS63 KDVN 241720
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1220 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Memorial Day weekend weather remains mainly dry, through
  some spotty rain showers are possible at times, wetting rains
  are few a far between.

- The highest (30-50%) chance for appreciable rain during the
forecast period will be on Tuesday.

- Cooler than normal weather continues through mid week, followed by
a warming trend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Midlevel clouds and high clouds are streaming over the region early
today, as Fgen continues north of the active frontal zone in the
Plains through Ozarks.  Widespread thunderstorms will continue in
this frontal zone to our south, while bouts of moisture starved Fgen
continue in our area.  This will mean a continuation of tonight`s
weather into Monday, with mainly dry conditions at most times, but a
on an off threat for light rain showers, much like what`s happening
early this morning.  As of 2 AM, an Fgen band of rain showers
(mainly sprinkles) has resulted in spotty wetting rains along a line
from Ames Iowa to Ft Madison IA. We`ve seen wet roads on the Ft
Madison webcam in the last hour, but most sites nearby have remains
a trace or dry today.  This situation looks to be repeated as
another period of Fgen moves over the region tonight into Sunday
morning, then again Monday.  Again, this won`t be impactful for most
areas, but a wetting rain is possible at times, and if that occurs
during the day, a cool few hours are expected, as they dry low level
air wetbulbs downward to the 50s.

Highs today under off and on opaque mid clouds will lean toward the
cooler 25th percentile NBM, in the upper 60s to 70.  This same
situation is expected Sunday and Monday, with highs of upper 60s to
lower 70s, which is as advertised, pleasant weather, though some
hours of mostly cloudy skies are expected each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 204 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Tuesday through Wednesday, the cooler than normal (but pleasant
temperatures) will continue, though a more widespread rainfall
chance is expected (30-50%), as a potential upper trof moves through
the upper midwest.  There will be a continuation of heavy rainfall
and storms well to the south, likely holding the primary advection
of moisture to the south of the region, through the GFS definitely
is showing a more northerly trend, we`re leaning towards a southern
QPF focus, with the CWA seeing showery weather and lighter QPF under
0.25". Highs once again in the mid 60s to lower 70s are forecast
with mostly cloudy skies both days.

Thursday and Friday continue to show potential for warming, but
nothing too crazy, highs in the mid to upper 70s are most
likely in this period, with a low (20-30%) chance for showers
and storms. Thunderstorms in this period would be more possible
than other days, largely due to cold air aloft as most mid
range guidance suggests an upper low over the region again at
that time, following the Tue/Wed trof passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle. Increasing mid-high
clouds with light east winds will be seen this afternoon/evening ahead
of approaching wave moving east across NE/SD. Isolated to
scattered showers to develop after midnight tonight across
eastern IA, northeast MO, and northwest IL. Confidence in seeing
VFR/brief MVFR rain at the terminals is too low for any
prevailing mention, but have included PROB30 groups for this
possibility at CID/MLI/BRL. Model guidance is quite aggressive
in bringing MVFR cigs to MLI/BRL late in the period and have
trended that direction, but not confident in that low of
ceilings at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Gross