012
FXUS63 KDVN 121116
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
516 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...Updated for 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and dry through Saturday, with temperatures as much as
  15-20+ degrees above normal Friday into Saturday when some
  near record warm lows and highs are possible.

- Next chance for measurable precipitation is not expected until
  early to mid next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 209 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A cold front continues to push through the region early this
morning with little in the way of fanfare aside from a wind
shift to the northwest, occasionally gusty. Aloft, some
cirrus was moving in attendant to an upper level jet. This
will pretty much be the theme of today, gusty winds and
sun mixed with some high level clouds. The combination of a
surface pressure gradient and daytime mixing will lead to
winds once again gusting 25-35 mph at times, but today the
direction will be from the northwest. While this typically means
colder, in this case the airmass post-frontal is downslope
modified. As a result, highs today look to be actually warmer
from those of Tuesday, and generally range from around 52F NE
to 60F SW with 925 hPa temps of +5C to +9C mixing dry adiabatically
to the surface with plenty of sun and also some high clouds.
Depending on the extent of the mixing and surface drying, there
could be an elevated field fire danger risk this afternoon,
mainly across far SE Iowa, NE Missouri and portions of WC
Illinois, which didn`t receive nearly as much moisture from the
system this past weekend.

Tonight, many skywatchers will be closely monitoring the cloud
forecast, as we will have another opportunity at a magnificent
aurora display with a G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch in effect from
the Space Weather Prediction Center. An upper level jet streak
should foster some high cloudiness, but overall 1000-500 mb RH
at around 35-45% should limit the opaqueness making it largely
thin enough to not inhibit viewing. It will be chilly though,
with temperatures dropping through the 40s and into the 30s for
many areas by late evening, heading for the upper 20s to mid 30s
for lows. Winds should be much lighter and thus not too much of
an added wind chill.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 209 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

An amplifying ridge of high pressure will continue to build into
the region by Saturday morning. This will keep dry conditions
heading into the weekend, with temperatures warming above to
much above normal. The warmest days look to be Friday and
Saturday when an anomalously warm thermal ridge with 850 mb
temperature anomalies of +10C to +15C traverses the region ahead
of a cold front. LREF cluster analysis continues to show some
timing and amplitude differences of the pattern with the
northern stream trough passing through the ridge, but
essentially 3 of the 4 clusters are progressive with the wave
and attendant front into the early part of the weekend. Nearly
all of the short term deterministic models are agreeing and
support a cold frontal passage on Saturday. Given once again
some modification of the airmass via downslope this effect on
sensible weather is not much to alter the message of above
normal warmth. Case in point the NBM Interquartile ranges are
only 2-4 degrees, thus supporting high confidence on warmer than
normal temperatures. From the SPC sounding climatology the
progged 850 mb temperatures of +13C to +15C by 00z Saturday
would be above the 90th percentile and near max for all DVN
RAOBs for the 14th of November. Overall, thermal parameters
support highs Friday and Saturday in the 60s with some areas
near 70 or in the lower 70s, particularly south and east. These
would be potentially near record highs, which are roughly in
the range of 69-75F across the main climate sites. The frontal
passage on Saturday looks to be dry with mainly only upper level
moisture.

The drying trend extends through Sunday as dprog/dt of LREF 500
mb heights continues to show slowing down of the energy in
the southwest, which is fairly typical. Thus, Sunday should
be another nice day with near normal highs in the 50s to near
60 and lighter winds as surface high pressure builds into the
region.

Our next chance of measurable precipitation is not slated to
arrive until Monday or Tuesday, attendant to the shortwave
energy ejecting from the southwest. Forecast confidence is low
however, as there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the
timing, strength and track of the shortwave. In fact, WPC
cluster analysis from 12z Tuesday offered very good agreement
between the 4 clusters keeping the shortwave over the Great
Basin area through 00z Wednesday. Thus, if anything we could
see the precipitation chances being delayed or pushed back even
further toward mid to possibly even late next week. That said,
some of the deterministic medium range guidance and ensemble
means of CMC, GFS and ECMWF offer a lead wave ejecting out
early next week potentially not being resolved well by cluster
analysis due to lower amplitude nature. So, for now we`ll
continue to maintain the broad 30-50% PoPs Monday into Tuesday,
but will obviously need to keep an eye on trends in the days
ahead.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Winds remain the only aviation concern, as VFR conditions will
continue through the period. Winds will stay gusty from the
NW with gusts 20-30 kt. There is potential for LLWS through
daybreak, particularly at KDBQ and KMLI, but this continues to
look marginal with winds around 35-40 kt near 2kft agl thus
have left out mention. Westerly winds should diminish to 10 kt
or less tonight with BL decoupling, as high pressure builds in.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure