252
FXUS63 KDVN 071950
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
250 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances return to the area midweek through the
  end of the week. Amounts continue to look light and not that
  impactful.

- A slow warming trend ensues midweek and continues through the
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

A robust shortwave trough over the Great Lakes helped usher a
cold front through the region earlier this morning. With the
passage of the front, steepening lapse rates aided by the
anomalous pocket of cold air aloft and surface heating has
fostered a more extensive cumulus deck advancing/developing
southward through northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois. In
addition, mid level DCVA atop the steep low level lapse rates
is aiding some shower activity, particularly into southern
WI and far northern IL. Given the dry air (large temp/dew point
spreads 15-20+ degrees) it`s limiting to mainly flurries with
little if any visibility impacts. Otherwise, it`s been a brisk/
blustery day with gusts 30-35 mph at times and when combined
with the well below normal temps it makes it feel like the
mid 30s to lower 40s for many but where the clouds are thickest
into parts of northeast Iowa and northern Illinois it feels more
like the upper 20s to near 30F. Brrrr! Later tonight, high
pressure will begin build in and bring clearing skies and
decreasing winds. The good radiational cooling setup will lead
to a cold night with lows in the 20s and possibly as cold as
near 20F in some locations - within shouting distance of record
lows potentially for a few of us.

Tuesday will bring back the sunshine, but it will remain cool
with highs below normal and ranging from the mid 40s to the
lower 50s. Some increase in high cloudiness is possible late
ahead of our next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

Tuesday night into Wednesday, a shortwave emerging from the
Canadian Rockies will zip southeastward into the southern
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by 12z Thursday. There`s
a general consensus on a surface and 850 hPa low traversing
the region. Strengthening warm advection will lead to
precipitation chances late Tuesday night through Wednesday.
This looks to be mainly rain, but some snow is looking
possible as well early on particularly across parts of far
northeast Iowa and northwest Illinois (roughly Independence
to Mt. Carroll) as wet bulb temperatures remain just cold
enough (30-32F). This should be a relatively short-lived
bout of snow potential for these areas before the warm advection
forces it over to rain. Not likely looking at a widespread or
all day precipitation event, but rather a couple of rounds
with the initial warm advection late Tuesday night-Wed PM
and then followed by forcing Wednesday night with the passage
of the surface and mid level lows. Precipitation chances
will then likely linger Thursday into Thursday night as a
series of low amplitude waves are shuttled down into the region
in meridional upper flow. Overall, rain amounts look to be
mainly light with NBM probabilities at 20-40% for greater than
a third of an inch (along and east of the Mississippi River).

Temperatures will gradually moderate mid to late week, but
the emphasis is on gradual due in part to the clouds and
precip Wed/Thu making for gloomier days. But, brighter days
and warmer temps are on the horizon and nicely timed for the
upcoming weekended as upper level ridging builds in. Unfortunately
it doesn`t look to last long with another eastern trough
by mid next week owing to more colder/below normal temperatures
by mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Steepening
lapse rates, between colder air moving in aloft and diurnal
heating, will support SCT-BKN cumulus with VFR bases. Can`t rule
out a few sprinkles/flurries at DBQ and possibly MLI later
this afternoon into early evening, but the main lift and focus
for rain/snow showers looks to be just east of the terminals.
Winds will be brisk from the north gusting to 25-30 kt through
afternoon. Tonight, winds will diminish and skies will clear as
high pressure begins to build in.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 6 2025

Record Lows for Tuesday Apr 8th

Burlington.....17 in 1972
Cedar Rapids...15 in 2018+
Dubuque........12 in 1972
Moline.........18 in 2018

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...McClure
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...12