106
FXUS63 KDVN 192345
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
645 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few isolated showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, is
  possible north of I-80 through tonight (10-15%). Patchy fog
  is possible late tonight into Wednesday morning.

- Outside of a slight chance of storms late Friday into
  Saturday, drier conditions are expected through early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Current satellite imagery shows cloud cover slightly breaking up
across portions of the area, however weak northerly flow through the
evening will lead to generally overcast skies continuing for the
remainder of the day. A mid-level shortwave will track southward
through the evening hours. Its associated forcing will be minimal
across the area and although moisture parameters are still somewhat
favorable with dewpoints near 70 and average model PWATs around 1.5
inches, this combined with relative stability due to the
aforementioned cloud cover will inhibit any widespread thunderstorm
development. High-res models continue to show a few isolated showers
and possible thunderstorms this evening, mainly across our northern
counties. In any case, severe weather is not expected. Some residual
moisture will remain in place and thus fog remains possible around
at the usual time before/after sunrise Wednesday morning. Highest
chances would be again be across northern counties, particularly if
any showers develop there later this evening. Anything should burn
off fairly quickly and a pleasant day Wednesday looks to be in order
with a building upper ridge to the west leading to drier conditions.
Highs generally in the low-to-mid 80s are expected with gradually
clearing skies in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

An upper ridge building to the west will bring mostly dry conditions
for the next few days. Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes
will lead to weak easterly flow and hence relatively cooler and
consistent temperatures into the weekend, with highs in the
low-to- mid 80s along with partly-to-mostly clear skies. The
next meaningful chance of precipitation will occur late Friday
into Saturday. A 500 mb trough and its associated occluding
surface low/cold front will track across the area during this
time frame. Most large-scale models indicate a line of broken
precipitation ahead of the front becoming more organized by
Saturday morning as it makes its way into our area. Nonetheless,
given the 3-day lead time, only chance PoPs have been retained
in the latest forecast, but will likely increase as confidence
grows. After the frontal passage, the upper level jet will dip
well to the south by Sunday though early next week. A much
stronger cold front may as well lead to further precipitation
chances later Sunday, however confidence remains low. There is
much higher confidence with regards to the significant cooling
trend behind this front. Highs may struggle to reach 70s in
some locations Sunday and Monday, with lows likely falling into
the upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

Mainly VFR is expected through the period. However, occasional
bouts of lower ceilings are possible late tonight into early
Wednesday AM, favored north of MLI. Shallow patchy fog may
develop late tonight and last through mid Wednesday AM and have
maintained this mention in the TAFs. Locally dense fog (LIFR to
VLIFR Vis.) is possible, but confidence is very low on the
location and coverage so did not include in TAFs. Light winds
are expected overnight into Wednesday AM, generally around 5 kts
or less.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025

The latest Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 day and 8-14 day
temperature outlooks has 60 percent or higher probabilities of below
normal temperatures for the last week of August across the entire
outlook area. Normal highs for this time of year are in the lower
80s and normal lows are in the upper 50s and lower 60s. This will be
a very much welcomed change compared to recent days, even a taste of
Fall perhaps!

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM...AP
AVIATION...Uttech
CLIMATE...Gross