778
FXUS63 KDVN 221051
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
551 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid to finish out the work week. Heat and
  humidity to return for the weekend and next week.

- Mainly dry conditions through the end of the month.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Below normal temperatures with low humidity will be seen through
tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Thursday through Sunday
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of warming temperatures and
higher humidity for the weekend.

The late week and weekend will see rising temperatures and humidity
levels, especially over the weekend. Dew points will be in the mid
to upper 60s on Saturday making the humidity noticeable.

Sunday dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s should be common.
The possibility does exist that pockets of mid 70s dew points could
form. When combined with probable highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s, heat indices of 95 to 100 would be widespread.

The model consensus continues to advertise rain late Thursday night
and mainly Friday morning. The rain chances are 15 to 50 percent for
areas south of I-80. The overall consensus is biased toward the
wetter GFS and many of its ensemble members.

The other global models are mainly dry with their respective
deterministic runs. HOWEVER, there are ensemble members from each
global model (much fewer than the GFS) that bring rain into the
area. The vacillating of how far north the rain gets with each
model cycle appears to be tied to the strength of the high over the
western Great Lakes. With building heights aloft in the Plains, the
entire system and rain should be further south across Missouri.

Sunday night through Tuesday
Assessment...medium (50-70%) confidence on above normal temperatures

Heights aloft will continue building north in the Plains the first
part of next week. The question is will the area be in the active
zone for organized nocturnal storm complexes. Thermal and flow
profiles currently suggest the organized storm complexes would be
Minnesota/Wisconsin and into Michigan.

With the summer monsoon season ongoing in the desert southwest there
will be numerous disturbances moving around the edge of the heat
dome to produce organized storm complexes. The model consensus does
have 20-30 percent rain chances with two separate disturbances
Sunday night/Monday and again Monday night. I suspect those chances
will slowly drop the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Some MVFR stratocu advected in from the northeast off LK MI may
affect the MLI and possibly the BRL TAF sites for the first few
hours of the TAF period. Otherwise a large ridge of high
pressure building acrs the upper Midwest will produce VFR
conditions into Thu morning. Northeasterly sfc winds of 5-10 KTS
will back to the northwest by afternoon, then trend light and
variable after sunset this evening. Ambient diurnal cumulus
should raise to VFR levels by the time it may become BKN
coverage later today.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12