547
FXUS63 KDVN 092315
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
615 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild and breezy conditions, with WNW winds gusting 25-40 mph,
  are expected into the early evening.

- A clipper-like system late Monday night into Tuesday morning
  is forecast to bring scattered (30-70%) showers and
  thunderstorms to the region.

- Warm up expected late week with temperatures reaching into
  the 80s by Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Gusty WNW to NW winds have developed along and behind a weak
cold front and will reach 25 to 40 mph through the afternoon.
Due to the strong winds, outdoor burning is discouraged into the
evening hours. As the pressure gradient slackens late this
evening and daytime mixing wanes, winds will drop off
significantly. High pressure building in, combined with a dry
air mass, will allow temperatures to drop into the 40s to upper
30s (NW) tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Sunday-Monday...Mother`s Day will be dry and mostly sunny with
highs in the 60s. Lows are expected to drop back into the mid/upper
30s and low 40s, leading to a cool start Monday morning and
possible patchy frost along/north of the Highway 20 corridor. High
pressure to our west is expected to keep winds out of the north
and highs in the mid-60s and low 70s on Monday, but this does
not last long as the high shifts to the northeast and so does
the wind to southeasterly flow, moderating lows (40s and low
50s) and bringing clouds back into the forecast Monday night.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The next shortwave trough dives into the
Upper Midwest Tuesday morning, enhancing diffluent flow aloft
underneath a shortwave ridge over the Great Lakes. This will
allow a surface low pressure over Minnesota to deepen as it
moves to the southeast. A relatively strong 850-700 mb f-gen
band sets up over eastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa before
moving into Wisconsin and northern Illinois, producing a shield
of light-to-moderate stratiform rain. As the cold front moves
through early Tuesday afternoon, a narrow band of thunderstorms
could develop along and north of I-80; however, moisture
availability is questionable with the limited low-level return
ahead of the front. Regardless of storms, winds are going to be
gusty on Tuesday with southwest/west gusts around 40 mph
possible.

Conditions dry out Tuesday night as northwesterly flow aloft and at
the surface will advect in cold and dry air. Lows are going to drop
into the 50s after highs in the mid-70s to mid-80s on Tuesday. There
is a 10-20% chance at some light showers lingering in
northwestern Illinois Wednesday morning on the backside of the
low pressure system, but northerly flow will keep temperatures
seasonable Wednesday with highs in the mid-60s to mid-70s and
lows in the 40s.

Thursday-Saturday... A high pressure anchored over the Upper
Mississippi River Valley should keep the region dry Thursday as
longwave ridging builds to our west. This all shifts Thursday night
as the next shortwave trough over the western CONUS kicks the ridge
and high pressure to the east, turning the surface winds out of the
southeast ahead of a developing low pressure system over central
Canada. Since this trough will not be well amplified, propagation
speed of the low pressure and associated cold front over the
Northern Plains is forecast to be slow, keeping PoPs around
Thursday night into Saturday morning. While it is too far out to
determine if there is a severe weather threat, the main
headline heading into next weekend is the warm temperatures with
the LREF currently suggesting 40-60% chances of highs in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Gusty
northwest winds as of TAF issuance will quickly weaken early
this evening, with quiet overnight conditions as an area of
high pressure builds. Winds will strengthen once again for
Sunday, but they`re not expected to be as breezy as they were
today. Another daytime cumulus cloud field should develop Sunday,
with ceilings around 7-8 kft.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Delaune/Uttech
AVIATION...Schultz