512
FXUS63 KDVN 172315
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
615 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather tonight with lower humidity.

- Active pattern returns tomorrow as warmer more moist air moves
  north into the area.

-Ring of fire moves over the area bringing daily chances for thunderstorms.
 Some of which could be strong to severe with heavy rain
 possible.

-The heat returns in earnest next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Expect quiet weather in the short term as high pressure is
expected through most of the period. The surface boundary is
expected to move north into the area late in the period. Overall
no precip is expected as temperatures begin to increase across
the area. Afternoon highs to top out in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

Upper level ridging builds into the area to start the period as
series of ridge riding waves move through the flow.  The front that
is now south of us, retreats back north as a warm front as our
typical summer dance with this front placement continues. Guidance
indicates that we enter the active MCS track through next week as H7
temps mainly stay above -13C with the exception of Tuesday and
Wednesday. This active pattern is notoriously difficult to
forecast, yet has the potential to yield impactful weather for
the area. This upper level ridge further reinforces across the
area during next week as we enter a very hot and humid airmass
across the area. With peak crop evapotranspiration and warm air,
heat headlines will likely be needed sometime next week.

Looking at Saturday, the warm front is expected to be across the CWA
as a wave move across the area.   Deep layer shear will increase to
40-50 kts across the region. SBCAPE is forecast to be on the high
threshold with values exceeding 4000 J/kg across the area.  SBCIN is
forecast to erode through the afternoon.  So the environment is
primed for severe weather.  The main question becomes the cap.  How
strong that is along with any left over convection or convection
overnight.  Latest CAMs have storms moving into the area in the AM.
This could limit thunderstorm development later.  That all said
confidence in forecast is low at this time. Rain rates over 2"/hr
are possible and if storms train over the same area, then flash
flooding may occur. There is a large QPF footprint as indicated by
WPC and all ensemble solutions (GEFS, GEPS, ECE) through this
weekend. Stay weather aware this weekend!

Tuesday Onward...a strong upper level ridge will build into the
central CONUS pushing the active storm track further north into the
upper Midwest. This unfortunately will allow heat and humidity to
return in earnest with extreme heat becoming more and more likely.
If that were not enough, CPC has a moderate to high risk of
hazardous temps July 24th- 25th. Heat headlines will eventually
be needed next week for this.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with light
northeasterly winds shifting easterly through the night. Aside
from occasional/brief MVFR cigs around 2500-3000 ft, no sig wx
is expected at this time.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Gibbs/Gross
AVIATION...Gunkel