510
FXUS63 KDVN 121622
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1122 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mostly dry weekend is expected over the area - good timing
  for recovering from the severe storms and major flash
  flooding from the past few days. There is a low chance
  (10-30%) of a shower this afternoon into the evening hours.

- Temperatures begin to increase next week ahead of our next
  weather system for the middle of the week, with increasing
  thunderstorm chances expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

After a very active period of severe thunderstorms and major flash
flooding over the last few days, mostly dry conditions are expected
this weekend as drier air filters in behind a cold front that will
continue to sweep through the area from the northwest. Northwesterly
flow will be common across the area today in the wake of the front.
Global model guidance are in pretty good agreement with a mid-level
trough skimming the area to the north this afternoon into the
evening, which could provide enough lift to generate a low chance of
showers (10-30%). Instability will be significantly lower compared
to the last several days, and the 12.00z HREF ensemble 1-hr
probability of thunder indicates less than a 10% chance of
lightning. More seasonal temperatures are expected today, with highs
in the lower 80s.

Dry conditions should continue through Sunday night, thanks to an
area of high pressure remaining over the Corn Belt region, with
highs in the lower to middle 80s Sunday. Other than some higher
level cirrus clouds, quite a bit of sunshine is expected, especially
for locations along and north of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

The work week next week will contain periodic chances of showers and
storms, particularly for mid-week (going as high as 40-60% for
Wednesday). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests zonal flow will be
the norm, depicted well in the 12.00z LREF 500 mb height cluster
analysis. Monday looks dry overall for us, but a few mid-level
impulses embedded within the zonal flow will support more active
conditions starting Tuesday. One key feature will be a surface cold
front that is progged to sweep through the Upper Midwest Tuesday
into Wednesday. There remains higher uncertainty on how far south
the front progresses, given differences among the global models.
However, there are some signals for stronger convection possible on
Wednesday along the front per the various ML guidance, although
these outputs are fairly muted. The active period could very well
continue into the end of the week as strong upper-level ridging
develops over the southeastern CONUS region, which could act to
stall the frontal boundary over the Corn Belt region.

Temperatures will warm up slightly for Monday through Wednesday
before the aforementioned cold front approaches, with highs in the
middle to upper 80s each day, gradually cooling off after that.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Wide-ranging conditions early this morning are making for a very
low-confidence TAF forecast. MVFR to LIFR ceilings and
visibilities have developed over most of the area, with some
isolated VFR pockets. Overall, we expect these conditions to
improve gradually through the morning hours, with a period of
VFR daytime cumulus clouds developing late this morning into the
afternoon. Northwest winds will be the norm today into the
evening, generally around 10 knots or so.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

What is NEW...

Flood watches for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the English
River at Kalona have been converted to flood warnings. A flood
watch has been issued for the Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa.

Discussion...

Another round of heavy rain fell across eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois, ad far northeast Missouri Friday afternoon into Friday
night with widespread 1 to 4+ inches across the area with 3 to 5
inches falling in the Quad CIties and northwest of Dubuque.
This is brought 48 hour rainfall totals in some locations to 5
to 9 inches. These heaviest rains were located on portions of
the Maquoketa, Wapsipinicon, North Skunk, English, Iowa, and
the Mississippi River. Despite the possibility of showers this
afternoon the forecast is dry through Monday night.

Many area rivers are beginning to respond to the heavy rains
over the last 48 hours. Due to the abnormally dry conditions
across the area many rivers are forecast to stay within bank-full.
A flood warning remains in effect for the Iowa River at Marengo
as well as a flood watches for the Wapsipinicon River at DeWitt
and the Mississippi River at Gladstone and Burlington.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz
HYDROLOGY...Cousins