142
FXUS63 KDVN 090722
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
222 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A 20-30 percent chance of rain late tonight and Friday but
  most areas will remain dry. A similar rain risk is possible
  Sunday night but most areas will remain dry.

- Another brief warm-up to above normal temperatures late this
  weekend and early next week followed by temperatures closer to
  normal by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Quiet and dry conditions with near normal temperatures will be seen
across the area today. Attention then turns to the next rain
potential.

Tonight the evening hours will remain dry. The rain potential after
midnight sadly is in question.

Progged profiles of the atmosphere show considerable dry air in the
lower levels with moisture above. Thus a majority of the moisture
will go into cloud production. The depth of the dry air does slowly
lower through sunrise Friday. The overall signal suggests elevated
showers/sprinkles west of the Mississippi with a coverage of 20-30
percent, possibly lower. Regardless, if rain occurs it will be very
light with amounts generally under 0.05 inches. There will be a fair
number of areas that remain dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Friday
Assessment...low (20%) confidence regarding rain

The upper level disturbance that arrives Thursday night will exit
the area Friday afternoon. Although the depth of the low level dry
air is not as deep, moisture profiles suggest a 20-30% risk of rain
in the morning. Again, any rain will be very light and most areas
will remain dry.

Friday night through Saturday night
Assessment...Very high (>80%) confidence of dry conditions

A quick moving high pressure passes through the Midwest helping to
keep temperatures near normal along with dry conditions.

Sunday through Wednesday
Assessment...high (>70%) confidence of temperatures trending above
normal. Low (20-25%) confidence regarding rain.

The model consensus shows temperatures trending above normal for the
first half of the week as the upper ridge builds back north. The
question is will any rain be seen.

For Sunday/Sunday night the warm front moves through the area which
would provide a focus for some rain. The model consensus generates a
20-30 percent chance of rain with the better chances being Sunday
night. However, progged profiles of the atmosphere show dry air in
the lower levels. Thus while there is a signal for rain, many areas
will remain dry.

For the Monday through Wednesday time frame, the rain potential
(which is low) is predicated on where the axis of the upper ridge is
located. If it is west of the area, suggested by some deterministic
models, the rain chances would be 10 percent or less. What is
interesting is the progged moisture in the mid and high levels of
the atmosphere arriving from the tropical systems in the eastern
Pacific. Said moisture would point to more mid and high level clouds
which could have an impact on overall temperatures.

Right now the model consensus has mainly dry conditions with a 20
percent chance of rain Tuesday night/Wednesday for areas mainly west
of the Mississippi. Again, most areas will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Winds will slowly become more southerly through 18z/09 as high
pressure moves into the eastern Great Lakes. A weak storm system
is forecast to impact eastern Iowa after 04z/10 with isolated to
scattered SHRA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08