843
FXUS63 KDVN 242315
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
515 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance for some minor accumulating snow for northern
  portions of the area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

- Potential remains, but lower, for another storm system with a
  chance for rain or snow Wednesday and Wednesday night with
  minor accumulating snow Wednesday night north.

- Confidence is low in the track/strength and subsequent snow
  potential and if any impactful weather will be seen. Continue
  to monitor the forecast!

- An arctic-like air mass Friday into early next week remains
  likely (70-90%).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Tonight, a low pressure area will lift NE across the area.
Southwest flow will bring moisture into the area with initially
an increase in clouds and then a slight to low chance for rain
along and east of the MS River. Some fog and drizzle will be
possible late tonight and into early Monday. Winds will increase
out of the NW towards daybreak, especially west of the river.
This will also scour out any lingering fog or drizzle. Lows will
be in the mid 30s NW to mid 40s along and east of the river.

Monday, brisk northwest winds on the back of the system will
prevail across the area, with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Clouds
will gradually clear from SW to NE during the afternoon with
temperatures steady or falling through the day. There is a
slight chance for some light rain in NW IL during the afternoon,
but will be very light. By early evening, temperatures will be
in the 30s.

Monday night, high pressure will build in with skies becoming
mostly clear and wind speeds dropping to under 10 mph in most
areas by morning. Temperatures will be quite cold, with lows
early Tuesday in the upper teens to mid 20s, and wind chills
even colder.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Focus in the long term remains with the potential of some
rain/snow Wednesday and then arctic cold for the weekend and
into next week.

Tuesday will be quiet with light winds and just some increase in
clouds as a ridge of high pressure moves through the area. Highs
will be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Tuesday night after midnight, models had previously hinted at a
fgen band of snow developing north of I-80. Latest runs are not
showing much at all. There remains some slight (<20%) POPs
mainly east of the MS River for light snow north of I-80 and
rain south. At this time, there is little in the way of
moisture with this system, so any amounts will be light and a
dusting on elevated surfaces at best.

Wednesday and Wednesday night, a storm system will track across
the region bringing a wintry mix of rain and snow to portions
of the area. Models are coming into better agreement, and are
leaning towards the more southern track solution. The European
was the hold out with the more northern track and has now
shifted further south. Meanwhile the GFS, Canadian and NAM keep
the system south with the CWA dry. The current blend keeps some
slight and low chances (20-40%) for snow north, a rain snow mix
central, and all rain south for parts of the area. WPC has the
bulk of the QPF south of the area. Where the higher QPF values
are, temperatures are warmer and will result in rain. Highs
Wednesday afternoon will be in the upper 30s and low 40s north
of I-80 with mid 40s south. The best POPs are slated for
Wednesday afternoon with the higher POPS in the south and east.
Drying conditions will work west to east during the evening and
overnight.

Thanksgiving and beyond, overall dry and much colder conditions
are forecast as an arctic high settles into the area. Highs will
be in the 20s to low 30s with lows predominantly in the teens
and single digits. There is a weak disturbance, currently slated
for next Saturday, which could bring some snow to the area. This
is day 7 of the forecast so there is plenty of time for
refinement.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

VFR conditions are quickly eroding, as an MVFR deck works
through the area. This deck is currently hovering around
4000-4500 ft, but these decks are expected to drop to near
1500-2500 ft by 06-10z throughout the area, with sub-1000 ft
possible at DBQ. These cigs will remain through much of the
upcoming day, with them starting to move out after 18z.
Overnight, winds will remain light as the surface low passes
over, but we will start to see winds greatly pick up on the back
end of the system. There will be a brief moment where we can
see some drizzle/mist, dropping vis to near 4-5 SM, as the
winds go light and variable with the surface low overhead. This
will be a short period though, as winds are expected to quickly
pick up on the backside of the low. By 15z, we will start to see
northwesterly gusts between 20-30 KTs move in, lasting through
much of the day.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...Gunkel