992
FXUS63 KDVN 070541
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
Issued by National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1241 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smattering of shower/storm chances Wed afternoon/evening (10-30%).
  If realized, don`t expect much for rain (trace to 1/10") but
  perhaps a few wind gusts into the 20s mph.

- Spate of dry and relatively warm days (70s to around 80) then
  through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT
Tue May 6 2025

Weak upper level west-east running frontal boundary slated to
sink southward across the forecast area Wednesday, helped along
by a bit of upper level energy dropping southeast across the
upper Mississippi river valley. Meanwhile, bits of shortwave
energy continue to ripple around a cutoff closed 500mb low over
the southern plains. CAMS models suggest these features could
have enough forcing to spark at least a smattering of
showers/storms for the afternoon into the early evening hours
Wed. However, the moisture profile says different. Bufkit
soundings all across the area and a north-south running
x-section depict a very dry atmosphere upwards of 8kft. While
the forcing is there, it won`t have much to work with. Believe
the mix still warrants at least low end chances (10-40%).
Upwards of 500 J/kg of MUCAPE holds some thunder risk too.

As for amounts - if pcpn can reach the surface, don`t expect
much - trace to 1/10" look reasonable at this time. Any rain
probably has a better shot to produce a few enhanced gusts as it
evaporates, cools and accelerates toward the sfc. Still, not
expecting anything impactful - perhaps low/mid 20 mphs gusts
around a shower/storm. For the most part, the pcpn will be more
miss than hit.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

The region looks to hold under the influence of amplified upper
level ridge into the early part of next week. WPC clusters all
favor this...but do start to show some differences as we start
the next work week. About half the EPS/GEFS suggest the ridge
axis will stay west of the local area by the mid part of next
week. The other half shift the ridge east over the eastern
great lakes.

For temps, a more summery feel to air with 70s to around 80 on
the whole through the weekend - 10+ degrees above normal on the
warmer days. Humidity will be held in check though as dewpoints
only top out in the 40s to low 50s.

The ridge favors keeping the area dry into next week. Can`t
completely rule out an upper level feature in the southern
stream of the flow to try and sneak under the ridge from time to
time. The bulk of the GEFS and EPS hold those chances south and
the model blend follows suit.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025

A surface low pressure progresses east through the Central
Plains today with it`s center well to the south near the
Missouri Bootheel. Low precipitation chances shift from
northeast to southwest this afternoon and evening concurrent
with increasing ENE winds. Precipitation potential increases as
high as 35% as it progresses southwest, highest around the
MO/IL/IA border early Thursday morning. While thunder cannot be
ruled out, with the low PoPs have only mentioned -SHRA at most
TAF sites.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rieck
LONG TERM...Rieck
AVIATION...JAR