883
FXUS63 KDVN 051105 CCA
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
605 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast today into
  tonight (50-80%), a few of which could become strong to
  severe.

- Occasional chances of showers and storms remain in the picture
  through next week, but with plenty of dry periods expected as
  well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Today: Scattered showers and storms are expected to increase in
coverage this afternoon and evening downstream of a shortwave
trough and attendant cold front tracking through the Upper
Mississippi Valley region. The first wave of scattered storms is
anticipated this afternoon into the early evening associated
with a pre-frontal trough and area of warm air/moisture
advection aloft. A secondary round of showers and storms is
possible from the late evening through about midnight, first
coming into the NW counties and then shifting to the southeast
in a gradual weakening phase.

SPC has a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms across
the majority of the outlook area with the primary threat being
localized damaging winds. Weak effective shear under 25 kts will
favor a multicell storm mode with some potential for upscale
growth if cold pools can consolidate. Forecast PWATs between 2
to 2.25" and high freezing levels around 16,000 ft are
supportive of torrential downpours due to efficient warm rain
processes. Therefore a secondary risk today is localized flash
flooding with urban areas most at risk.

Sunday: The southern extent of a compact 500mb low will be
moving across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois through the
day, which may lead to a few isolated showers and storms
developing. Areal coverage should stay low and most locations
will receive little to no rainfall. Otherwise, another humid
day is expected with highs in the 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Zonal flow aloft is forecast next week leading to seasonable
July temperatures and humidity levels. There are occasional
chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.
However, the main message for the week ahead is that widespread
rain is not anticipated. Unfortunately, areas that are in need
of a good soaking rain may have to continue to wait.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 545 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

A trough of low pressure will approach the area during the
afternoon and evening, bringing chances for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Brief MVFR/IFR is possible in the vicinity of
the heavier downpours. The highest chances for thunder are at
CID and DBQ, mainly between 21Z/Sat to 03Z/Sun. A period of
MVFR/IFR ceilings is possible (30-50%) along and behind the
front late tonight; held off on including in the TAFs with this
update due to low confidence.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Uttech
AVIATION...Uttech