152
FXUS63 KDVN 130820
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
320 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms are possible for locations along
  and south of Highway 34 this afternoon and early evening

- More widespread chances (40-60%) of showers and storms remain
  for mid-week

- A slight warm-up is expected for Monday through Wednesday,
  before turning more seasonal for the latter half of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Surface high pressure will slowly translate across the Corn Belt
today, keeping most of our CWA dry. The only exception will be a low
chance (20-30%) of an isolated shower or storm, mainly along and
south of Highway 34 this afternoon into the early evening as a mid-
level shortwave lifts northeastward from the central Plains region.
While this activity should remain more isolated, anyone caught under
this activity could see a brief heavy downpour and lightning. The
13.00z HREF QPF PMM values are suggesting rainfall totals of 0.25 to
0.75", but this should remain isolated. Instability and shear
appears to be pretty weak, so strong storms are not expected. Most
other locations will remain dry, with perhaps some wildfire smoke
mixing down to the surface around the Highway 20 corridor. Seasonal
high temperatures are expected once again today, warming to the
lower 80s.

Any lingering showers/storms early this evening should come to an
end as the aforementioned shortwave passes to the east, leading to
dry conditions tonight. Lows should dip to the lower to middle
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The work week forecast continues to have periodic chances of showers
and storms, particularly for mid-week (chances as high as 40-60% for
Wednesday PM). Overall, ensemble guidance suggests zonal flow will
be the norm, depicted well in the 13.00z LREF 500 mb height cluster
analysis. Monday looks dry overall for us, but a few mid-level
impulses embedded within the zonal flow will support more active
conditions starting Tuesday. One key feature will be a surface cold
front that is progged to sweep through the Upper Midwest Tuesday
into Wednesday. There remains higher uncertainty on how far south
the front progresses, given differences among the global models.
However, there are some signals for stronger convection possible on
Wednesday along the boundary per the various ML guidance, although
these outputs are fairly muted. The active period could very well
continue into the end of the week as strong upper-level ridging
develops over the southeastern CONUS region, which could act to
stall the frontal boundary over the Corn Belt region.

Temperatures will warm up slightly for Monday through Wednesday
before the aforementioned cold front approaches, with highs in the
middle to upper 80s each day, gradually cooling off after that.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with
SCT to BKN high-level cirrus clouds ongoing at time of TAF
issuance. The only exceptions would be at CID and DBQ later
tonight as some MVFR fog is possible. Models are pretty spread
out on how low visibility reductions will be, with some going as
low as IFR (below 2SM). However, both the HREF and NBM
probabilities indicate a less than 20 percent chance of IFR
reductions, so leaned toward MVFR for now. Light and variable
winds become more southwesterly during the daylight hours
Sunday, generally around 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

What`s NEW...

Flood Watches for the Skunk River at Sigourney and the English
River at Kalona have been converted to Flood Warnings. A Flood
Watch has been issued for the Wapsipinicon River at Anamosa.

Discussion...

Another round of heavy rain fell across eastern Iowa, northwest
Illinois, and far northeast Missouri Friday afternoon into
Friday night with widespread 1 to 4+ inches across the area with
3 to 5 inches falling in the Quad CIties and northwest of
Dubuque. This has brought 48 hour rainfall totals in some
locations to 5 to 9 inches. These heaviest rains were located on
portions of the Maquoketa, Wapsipinicon, North Skunk, English,
Iowa, and the Mississippi River.

Many area rivers are beginning to respond to the heavy rains
over the last 48 hours. Due to the abnormally dry conditions
across the area, many rivers are forecast to stay within bank-
full. A flood warning remains in effect for the Iowa River at
Marengo as well as a flood watches for the Wapsipinicon River at
DeWitt and the Mississippi River at Gladstone and Burlington.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz
HYDROLOGY...Cousins