Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FGUS73 KDTX 131613
ESFDTX
MIC017-049-091-093-099-111-115-125-145-147-155-157-161-163-201200-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1100 AM EST Thu Feb 13 2025
...2025 SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service probabilistic outlook
for the major rivers in the Saginaw River basin and the Clinton
...Rouge...Huron and Raisin River basins...
The Detroit/Pontiac office of the National Weather Service has
implemented Advance Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for all
the model locations in the above mentioned basins. AHPS enables
the National Weather Service to provide long range probabilistic
river outlooks. This service is also available on the internet
at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Pine River
Midland 12.0 14.0 16.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Tittabawassee River
Midland 24.0 25.0 28.0 10 22 9 21 <5 7
Shiawassee River
Owosso 7.0 9.0 10.0 42 22 6 <5 <5 <5
Kearsley Creek
Davison 10.0 11.0 12.0 35 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Flint River
Flint 13.0 15.0 17.0 15 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
Cass River
Cass City 14.0 18.0 20.0 11 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Vassar 14.0 15.0 18.0 12 5 9 <5 <5 <5
Frankenmuth 17.0 20.0 25.0 68 43 28 13 <5 <5
Saginaw River
Saginaw 17.0 19.0 24.0 30 27 10 14 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 02/17/2025 - 05/18/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Clinton River
Clinton Twp 16.0 17.0 19.0 28 17 11 8 5 <5
MT Clemens 16.0 17.0 18.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
North Branch Clinton River
MT Clemens 15.0 16.0 18.0 22 8 16 <5 <5 <5
River Rouge
Detroit 15.0 18.0 20.0 50 33 11 6 5 <5
Middle River Rouge
Dearborn Hts 10.0 11.0 12.0 10 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
Lower Rouge River
Dearborn 11.0 12.0 13.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mill Creek
Dexter 12.0 13.0 14.0 26 14 17 8 7 5
Huron River
Hamburg 7.0 7.5 8.0 59 37 28 18 12 11
Ann Arbor 16.0 17.0 18.0 14 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
River Raisin
Tecumseh 13.0 14.0 15.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Adrian 18.0 19.0 20.0 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Blissfield 683.0 685.0 687.0 16 21 <5 7 <5 <5
Dundee 650.0 652.0 653.0 16 18 <5 8 <5 7
Monroe 9.0 10.0 11.0 19 21 <5 6 <5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
...PAST PRECIPITATION...
So far the Winter for southeast Michigan has been drier then normal both
precipitation and snowfall. Overall temperatures have averaged slightly
above normal.
...RIVER CONDITIONS...
Most rivers are flowing around or slightly above average base flow, mainly
do to the period of warm weather with snow melt and rainfall mid January.
Decent cold spell since has allowed river ice to form.
...SOIL CONDITIONS AND FROST DEPTH...
Decent snow melt and rainfall event back in January followed by below average
temperatures have frozen above average moisture in the upper zone of
the soil. Frost depth can vary alot in a small distance but most areas
are around 6 inches.
...SNOW COVER AND LIQUID WATER CONTENT...
As of issuance of this outlook, snow depth ranged from a trace to an inch
across the south with 2 to 6 inches from around the M59 corridor on north
with pockets up to 10 inches in the Thumb and far northern Saginaw Valley.
Water content in the more substantial snowpack ranges from a quarter to half
inch.
...WEATHER OUTLOOK...
A significant snow event will be effecting the area at the time of this
issuance and will be included in the next issuance. The outlook for the
next 8-14 days calls for below average temperatures and precipitation.
The outlook for the rest of Spring is for above normal temperatures
and normal precipitation.
...FLOOD SUMMARY OUTLOOK...
Current conditions so far this Winter yields around average chance
for significant flooding this Spring. However with one or two significant
snow events expected shortly after this issuance, the next issuance will likely
have the risk raised.
This next Spring Flood Potential Outlook will be Feb 27.
Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX
$$
DRC