957
FXUS63 KDTX 011721
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
121 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies expected
through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Diurnal cumulus field has emerged this afternoon with cloud bases
between 4.0-7.0 kft agl. Cannot rule out BKN VFR cigs at MBS and
DET/DTW early this afternoon due to their proximity to lake
moisture. Lake influence has also caused wind direction to fluctuate
between 30 and 70 degrees around 10 knots. Large scale pattern is
governed by high pressure over the Midwest, which slides overhead
Saturday to maintain VFR conditions and light winds that veer from NW
in the north to NE in the south.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms will occur through the
duration of the TAF period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon between now and 20z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025

DISCUSSION...

Tranquil conditions this morning under the influence of a building
high pressure system which has maintained calm to light winds under
generally clear skies. This brings about a cooler start to the
morning relative to early August standards, where temperatures now
reside in the 50s. Cooler than normal conditions under low humidity
will persist this afternoon under a broad thermal trough where
sustained northeast flow support 850mb temperatures around 8C,
with temperature highs in the mid to upper 70s. Cooler flow off the
warmer waters of Lake Huron will bring modest advection of lake
moisture inland, which will likely aid in cu production through the
late morning and afternoon hours given strong lllr in place. There
may be just enough convergence along the Saginaw Bay shoreline to
produce a stray shower or two, but this would be a low chance short-
lived event under the backdrop of a very strong 1028 high pressure
system and mid-level cap. Scouring out of any cu will commence
through the evening hours which leads to another cool night with
overnight lows dropping into the low 50s.

High pressure will remain in control through the weekend which will
bring an extended period of dry weather and sunshine. Temperature
highs will gradually climb up each day through the weekend,
returning to near normal values through early next week. High
pressure will wash out early next week with some shortwave influence
to bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. But overall, the
longwave pattern remains diffuse over the Great Lakes with no upper
jet support. Only low-end PoP chances are supported in this
environment.

MARINE...

High pressure becomes centered over the Great Lakes today bringing
light northerly winds and lower wave heights. The high will settle
over the region resulting in a period of benign marine weather
through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.