806
FXUS63 KDTX 061937
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
337 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions through Saturday.

- Chance of showers Sunday through Tuesday with temperatures near
seasonal averages.

- Warming up late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Pooled low-level moisture on the cool side of the stalled frontal
boundary over northern Ohio has resulted in a stark moisture
gradient across the area today with dew points in the lower 60s in
the far south while lower 40s are present in the Saginaw Valley.
Diurnal drizzle/showers have dissipated in the Metro area over the
past hour but will maintain a slight chance for additional pop-up
sprinkles near the Ohio border through the remainder of the day as
the moisture axis is slow to retreat. The rest of the region remains
dry with a good amount of sunshine north of I-94. High pressure over
the upper Great Lakes expands farther southeast and the front
releases eastward this evening, allowing additional dry air to
spread into the area from north to south. This dry air takes
residence through Saturday as the high tracks overhead, offering a
pleasant early June day with highs in the mid to upper 70s and
comfortable dew points near 50.

A shortwave currently passing over WY will track into the southern
Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley Saturday night. In the lee of
the Rockies, this wave will produce a compact surface low that
tracks up the Ohio River on Sunday and brings potential for an area
of rain to spread northward into Lower MI. Given the convective
enhancement of the system as it engages with abundant instability
south of the front, forecast data still shows quite a spread in
system strength and placement by the time it reaches the vicinity. A
cold front will also be dropping across the Midwest on Sunday.
Solutions with quicker timing of this front (mainly GFS and GEFS)
tend to pull the Ohio Valley system northward and bring rain locally
during the day Sunday. Solutions with a slower Midwest front
(Canadian, 12z ECMWF ensemble members and 12z NAM, ICON, UKMET) tend
to keep the low south of us which favors dry weather. Given the
drier trend in the 12z ECMWF ensemble will hedge the forecast toward
the drier camp while still holding on to chance-type (25 to 40%)
PoPs with respect for the faster front still present in the solution
space.

Frontal passage then occurs Sunday night into Monday morning which
has better consensus among guidance to produce showers across much
of the area. The attendant height fall center will track across
northern Lower MI which places higher PoPs across the north with
lower PoPs toward the MI/OH stateline where forcing will be
relatively weaker. This front marks the arrival of a closed upper
low that will slowly progress across the Great lakes through early
next week. 500mb height anomalies dip to around -2 sigma with broad
cyclonic flow supporting unsettled/showery conditions Monday and
Tuesday. By Tuesday 850mb temps fall to the single digits C keeping
high temps slightly cooler than recent conditions. The upper low
then departs Wednesday to promote a stretch of drier and warmer
weather late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure fills into the Great Lakes tonight and Saturday,
maintaining light northeast flow across all of the waterways and dry
conditions. A pop up shower cannot be ruled out this afternoon, but
will wane with the loss of daytime heating. As the high pressure
departs Saturday night, light winds veer to the southeast. There is
a low chance for showers to clip Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair early
Sunday morning, but the more widespread opportunity for rain arrives
late Sunday night and early next week as an upper low carves into
the region. Even as this system arrives, winds and waves are
expected to remain below advisory level thresholds. Drier conditions
then arrive by middle of next week.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

AVIATION...

Moisture axis still lingering across southeastern MI from ADG up
through PHN featuring CIGs below 3kft and vsby restrictions of
largely 2-3SM. Dry air is continuing to work to scour out the
moisture while the moisture axis drops south by this evening.
Minimal concerns the rest of the forecast as high pressure pushes
dry air across lower MI with some high clouds and possible some
pockets of lower clouds. Winds remain fairly light out of the north
through Saturday.

For DTW/D21 Convection...No thunderstorms expected through the
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* high for ceilings below 5kft into this evening. Low the rest of
  the forecast.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....DRK


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