529
FXUS63 KDTX 120957
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
557 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will prevail today through Friday.

- Warming trend Thursday into Saturday with above normal
temperatures.

- Windy conditions are expected Saturday, with gusts over 40 MPH.

- Cooler and continued windy conditions are expected Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Cooler east-northeast flow will maintain control today, south of
high pressure lifting across southern Canada. Persistent region of
weak elevated warm air advection atop this flow maintains potential
for some areas of VFR cloud production today. Lower confidence
remains on coverage and location as the underlying environment
remains quite dry and stable. Otherwise, thicker mid level cloud
will exist today. Wind speed today generally below 10 knots.

For DTW...None

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

DISCUSSION...

Southern Michigan resides under zonal flow aloft with a glancing
shortwave traveling across northern lower, resulting in some mid to
high level clouds through the day. Limited large scale thermal
advection will estabilish a pronounced thermal gradient across the
cwa as cool easterly flow off Lake Huron limits warming near the
shoreline, holding highs in the upper 30s. Inland areas not as
exposed to the lake climate will peak in the 40s, approaching the
mid to upper 40s across the western fringe of the cwa, away from the
influence of the Saginaw Bay. Modest thermal advection will work to
boost temperatures back into the 50s tomorrow with this stretch of
dry weather persisting.

By Thursday afternoon, a potent upper-level trough will move onshore
over the western continental US, extending through Baja California.
As this trough progresses eastward, it will begin to pinch off,
evolving into a deep closed upper-level low as it pivots southeast
into the southern Rockies. From a dynamic tropopause perspective,
this feature is well-defined, with PV extending downward to near
600mb as evident in the 1.5 PVU surface. Strong CVA within the left
exit region of a robust upper level jet will induce lee
cyclogenesis, resulting in a rapidly intensifying surface low with
potential to deepen below 980mb. If verified, the strength of this
low would fall well outside all climatological normal values for this
time of year per CFSR reanalysis data, with a particularly extensive
footprint. This low is projected to track northeast through the
Midwest, reaching Wisconsin and Lake Superior by Saturday as
occlusion progresses.

Strong waa ahead of the system will drive anomalously high
temperatures and increasing moisture into SE MI. Highs on Friday are
expected to reach into the mid to upper 60s, with a sharp thermal
gradient holding temperatures in the low to mid 50s along the Lake
Huron shoreline due to cool easterly flow off the lake. By Saturday,
temperatures will look to challenge the 70 degree mark, with
overnight lows Friday night remaining unseasonably mild in the 50s,
possible approaching record high minimums.

Precipitation chances will materialize in two phases. The first
round will be driven by moist isentropic ascent preceding the
surface low, though limited instability will prevent deep
convection. Steeper mid-level lapse rates may still enhance rainfall
rates as a line of precipitation progresses. A dry slow will follow,
suppressing rain chances through a period on Saturday, with a
secondary wave then pushing higher theta-e air back into the region
by Late Saturday or early Sunday. The exact path of this secondary
moisture axis and thus degree of instability remains uncertain, but
with stronger shear in place, potential for organized convection
exists. A tightening pressure gradient combined with deep boundary
layer mixing will enhance momentum transfer from a 50+ knot low-level
jet near 5 kft AGL, supporting wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. Peak
gust potential will align with the intrusion of a dry slot Saturday,
maximizing vertical mixing. A cold front will then move through
Sunday, ending anomalously high temperatures and precipitation
chances.

MARINE...

High pressure is slowly exiting toward the east coast while still
remaining in control of the region. There will be a weak low
tracking across the northern Great Lakes today but is not expected
to produce any rain of notable winds. Weak gradient will hold
through the end of the week until a strong low (28.80 inches) moves
through the region this weekend. This low will have the potential to
produce gale-force winds/gusts Friday night through Saturday along
with periods of rain.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......DRK

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at www.weather.gov/detroit.